The big enigma for the 2005 season

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cycloneye
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The big enigma for the 2005 season

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2005 6:43 am

Image

With this thread I may be spoiling a party for those who want to see many systems but it is a reallity that the disturbances can get destroyed by this and derail an active Cape Verde season.

No matter if the waters are at 90 F,if the upper shear is less than 5kts,if no el nino is around and if surface pressures are low if we see many sal events that may change the whole notion of a very active Cape Verde season because the tropical waves that emerge Africa will clash against that big hurdle as the dry air entrains the disturbances as one example happened to TD#6 in 2003 which was forecast to become a hurricane entering the Caribbean Sea but dry air destroyed it.Let's see what happens in the next 5 months in the Atlantic and see how many dust storms come out of the Saharan Dessert.I think it was senorpepr in another thread who talked about how much rain has fallen in the Saharan Dessert and that data can determine how many sal events will occur in the next few months.
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#2 Postby TampaFl » Sat May 28, 2005 6:52 am

Cyclone, how was last year comparing to this year so far?. Obviously, last year the SAL was mostly a "non factor" in 2004 compared to 2003 and other years. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2005 6:56 am

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Above is an example of how the sal entrains a hurricane in this case Danielle in August 1998.

Image

More examples about how the sal can weaken systems.
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#4 Postby GulfHills » Sat May 28, 2005 10:20 am

What does SAL stand for?
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Sat May 28, 2005 10:22 am

GulfHills wrote:What does SAL stand for?


Saharan Air Layer
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2005 3:05 pm

GulfHills wrote:What does SAL stand for?


Oops I forgot to post what Sal means. :oops: SAHARAN AIR LAYER which comes out of Africa as dust storms that form in the Saharan Dessert.Thanks to that dessert there are not superactive Cape Verde seasons.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... round.html

At link above there is a more complete explanation about the sal.
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#7 Postby Brent » Sat May 28, 2005 3:38 pm

Last year, Ivan is believed to have suddenly and unexpectedly weakened by SAL when it was about a day east of the Windward Islands. It was a Cat 4 and weakened to a Cat 2.
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Sat May 28, 2005 3:44 pm

Yep. If Ivan had entered the Caribbean and started stregthening at 135 mph rather than 105 mph, it might have been 180 mph rather than 165 mph in the NW Caribbean, and could have been more in the 145-155 mph range off the GOM coast, probaby weakening to 140 mph by landfall.
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2005 3:45 pm

Brent wrote:Last year, Ivan is believed to have suddenly and unexpectedly weakened by SAL when it was about a day east of the Windward Islands. It was a Cat 4 and weakened to a Cat 2.


Yes it was the dry air that entrained the circulation of Ivan at that point.
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#10 Postby cyclonaut » Sat May 28, 2005 4:19 pm

What might take place is that there will be some waves that will have seemingy all they need to develop except the SAL will help keep them in check until they get further west.
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#11 Postby Anonymous » Sat May 28, 2005 5:02 pm

Is sal factored in Grays hurricane outlook? It seems to not be thought of much in advisories until after it has choked a storm considerring there have been TD's forecasted to become hurricanes only to get cut off by Sal.
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#12 Postby GulfHills » Sat May 28, 2005 6:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:
GulfHills wrote:What does SAL stand for?


Oops I forgot to post what Sal means. :oops: SAHARAN AIR LAYER which comes out of Africa as dust storms that form in the Saharan Dessert.Thanks to that dessert there are not superactive Cape Verde seasons.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... round.html

At link above there is a more complete explanation about the sal.


Thanks for the link, great information. And thanks to everyone else for explaining.
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