Question on Shear?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Are there models that can predict the amount and strength of shear in the Atlantic and GOM basins within 7-10 day time frame with any kind of accuracy. Just wondering.

[Scott_inVA]

7-10 days, with skill?
No, not in my opinion, or experience.

Different models are able to analyze different levels of atmos but to translate that with precision to a week or more typically renders a large margin of error.

Especially east of 50°, there is little true data and no RECCO.

Different models will frequently depict shear analysis with reasonable verification but that is one of many variables in determining strength and progged track of a TD or TC.

Scott

[MGC]

I don't trust the upper level models at all. They have a horrible time forecasting UL winds IMO. Learn to interpret water vapor satellite loops. That way you can tell if an anticyclone is over the hurricane, if there is UL shear ahead of the hurricane and other important factors.....MGC

[dhweather]

I don't trust the upper level models at all. They have a horrible time forecasting UL winds IMO. Learn to interpret water vapor satellite loops. That way you can tell if an anticyclone is over the hurricane, if there is UL shear ahead of the hurricane and other important factors.....MGC

MGC, I couldn't agree more. The wator vapor images are much more
telling. That was the case with Frances, Jeanne, and Ivan.

The models are much better than they used to be, and do help in
general terms. But watch a WV loop, and you'll see exactly what is
going on.

[george_r_1961]

I dont trust ANY models at 72 hours and beyond. Not being critical as we have come a long way in hurricane forecasting but thats just the way it is. Intensity forecasting is far more problematic (and shear has ALOT to do with intensity) than track forecasting. Hopefully we will improve in that area as well.