SW Caribbean Wave

[MWatkins]

The GFS has been jumping on some development in the SW Caribbean for 3 runs in a row now (starting with the 18Z yesterday which looked spurious) and now the CMC is also on board. So far, the UKMET and NOGAPS models are not suggesting any sort of cyclogenesis will occur. I just ran through the 0Z NOGAPS in detail it's not sniffing out anything.

One other issue...both the GFS and the CMC are very quick with development and they want to spin up a TC in the next 36 hours, and by the end of the day Thursday there is a full-fleged tropical storm in the Caribbean coming north. 12 hours ago I would have completely dismissed that idea, now I'll just partially dismiss it. The system does appear to be a bit better organized this morning and the upper environment looks like it will become fairly favorable at least in the SW Caribbean.

As always my concerns are the GFS and CMC are too fast with development and thus too fast pulling the system up out of the caribbean. I would think that development will be a bit slower if it occurs and perhaps we're looking at a problem for someone early to mid next week...if development occurs at all.

Waters are warm down there...if something does pop and if it wants to come north..the good news is that conditions in the Gulf may be a bit less favorable next week...but of course it is WAY too early to speculate on that.

Of course...we'll be talking about this wave tonight I am sure...

MW

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll be listening.


Gee I thought this would be one Hell of a season, but I didn't really think it would start until say late June, or perhaps even mid-July.


Hybridstorm_November2001