NW Caribbean Prediction Thread...

[Steve]

Where do you think landfall will occur, what do you think will be landfalling and when do you think it will landfall?

I'm going with a Monday mid-day landfall as a strong tropical storm (65mph) hitting between Henderson Point, Mississippi (Hancock Co.) and Mobile Bay (Mobile Co.), Alabama. The storm will probably have an eliptical center with all heavy weather from the center eastward over toward Panama City. The New Orleans area might see some breezes into the 20s, but little else.
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I'm lauhging my butt off on Louisiana people favoring models du jour and West Coast of Florida people wondering whether the initializations are too far west. Look, this isn't a pout fest on who doesn't get the action, but every year you see the same thing from Texans, Louisianians, Mississippians, Alabamans, Floridians and those up the east coast. JMO

Steve

[loon]

I'm sticking with New Orleans, CAT1+, I'll take Monday also.

cheers,
loon

[skysummit]

Monday night/early Tuesday morning....Mobile to Pensacola with 50 - 60 mph winds. Most moisture will be from Destin to Appalachicola.

[Agua]

I'd' like to see a closed center with models initialized from that data before I make a guess.

[PTrackerLA]

Steve I agree, all the storms seem to go east of here anyway. As much as the models will show a NOLA hit I know in my gut that this is more than likely going to hit AL/FL panhandle much to the chagrin of those who experienced Ivan.

[cyclonaut]

I'm calling for a landfall somewhere between Pensacola to Apalachicola.

[CaneCurious]

My "guess" is landfall of a moderate tropical storm (BIG rain maker) somewhere between Easterm Mississippi and Mobile, Alabama.

[GulfHills]

My guess....just a big rain maker, and headed to Alligator Pt.

[StormChasr]

Tropical Depression, and no real landfall---just lots of rain for Gulf area from Louisiana to West Florida.

[vbhoutex]

I'd' like to see a closed center with models initialized from that data before I make a guess.

I will go with a Sunday-Monday "landfall".

[vbhoutex]

My guess....just a big rain maker, and headed to Alligator Pt.

I've been there a few times(many years ago)!

[Brent]

Landfall between Pascagoula, MS and Panama City, FL. Tropical Storm 50-60 mph Sunday or Monday... flooding rains across the Florida Peninsula and the Southeast(which don't need it!)

[SunnyThoughts]

Monday evening/Tuesday morning...45 - 50mph tropical storm...between biloxi,Ms and Mobile,Ala.

[BayouVenteux]

Ditto with you Steve...a typical early season Gulf TS with all the activity off to the east. Probable landfall Sunday night or monday morning between Pascagoula and Pensacola.

I hope "Arlene"-to be behaves well, gets in and moves on out with haste, as my younger son is attending a week-long soccer camp over at the Univ. of South Alabama starting Sunday...would hate to have a wash out.

[Trader Ron]

Just a lil Wind and a lil Rain. Winds 35-40. Landfall Gulfport/ Ocean Springs Ms.

[cajungal]

I think if anything was to develop, Biloxi to Mobile is my best guess. I don't think us in southeast Louisiana will see much out of this system. The bulk of the moisture will stay well to our east.

[Anonymous]

I have to say....Louisiana on Monday. But time will tell

[canegrl04]

LA/MS early next week as a strong TS (65mph)

[Stratusxpeye]

Id have to say mobile to pensacola sun-mon rough estimate. Strenght Strong TS Or CAT1 Just a guess

[wxman57]

I think if anything was to develop, Biloxi to Mobile is my best guess. I don't think us in southeast Louisiana will see much out of this system. The bulk of the moisture will stay well to our east.

I'd say that's a good guess. Don't understand all the forecasts of a Monday or Tuesday landfall, though. Most model projections are for Saturday. I'm thinking Saturday afternoon/evening.