Thought on 3 models and RECON

[ncweatherwizard]

I'm not going to say much til RECON gets down to the invest area. Just a few minutes ago, the plane was crossing 20N, so it's going to be awhile. Also, the plane is probably going to have to cover quite a substantial area down there to get a good overview for where a circulation might be (This data may really help find where these models should initialize.)
UKMET, GFDL, and GFS are all pretty consistent with one another track-wise. The newer GFDL initialized more to the northwest, likely closer to what may be a center, but UKMET hasn't initialized well yet (then again, there's not much to work with yet). Anyhow, all three models agree with a track between Mobile Bay and the mouth of the Mississippi. Given the situation, I'd trust these three models for this situation (GFDL and GFS tend to perform well and UKMET handles the mid-latitude situation a little better) rather than the some that work the system a little farther east.
Of course, things will become clearer once we know where we need to initialize, so things could change pretty quickly after RECON reports---if there's anything much there.

sp