Curious tiny circulation feature

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x-y-no
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Curious tiny circulation feature

#1 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:59 am

I was just taking a look at the zoomed visible view at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
(select "Animation" and click on the center of the storm on the image)

In the last three frames (14:15, 14:32 and 14:40 utc) there's a little, tiny but very distinct circulation center popping out. This may not be the actual center, though, since it appears to track SSW in the last frame. Rather, it may be a little vortex embedded in the larger circulation.

Jan
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#2 Postby GalvestonDuck » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:04 am

Think I see what you mean. Is it directly west of Grand Cayman (not sure how many miles exactly, but if you draw a straight line west from GC, it's there)?
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#3 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:07 am

GalvestonDuck wrote:Think I see what you mean. Is it directly west of Grand Cayman (not sure how many miles exactly, but if you draw a straight line west from GC, it's there)?


Yes. Looks like a very nicely defined circulation center, but very small, and tracking SSW. Obviously, that's not the overall motion of the storm, which is why I found it odd.

Jan
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#4 Postby drezee » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:08 am

more WSW than SSW but interesting none the less
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#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:09 am

If that is the LLC then what is going on?
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#6 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:10 am

It might be a vorticie (sp?) rotating around a broader LLC. I have noticed that the LLC appears to be moving more NW this morning while convection continues to be well displaced to the east of the center. Looks like the center of Arlene might graze the Yucatan however if all things are held constant they wouldn't be getting any weather.
Last edited by PTrackerLA on Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:11 am

drezee wrote:more WSW than SSW but interesting none the less


Split the difference and call it SW. :-) There's one more frame in the animation now, which accounts for the discrepancy.

Jan
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#8 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:13 am

The storm itself is not moving NE, its moving N to NNW. SW movement probably was a jog.
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#9 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:15 am

PTrackerLA wrote:It might be a vorticie (sp?) rotating around a broader LLC. I have noticed that the LLC appears to be moving more NW this morning while convection continues to be well displaced to the east of the center. Looks like the center of Arlene might graze the Yucatan however if all things are held constant they wouldn't be getting any weather.


Yeah ... I'm having a very hard time figuring out where the real center is and which way it's tracking, and this little vortex isn't helping. :roll: I think you're right that the motion now a bit west of north, but I don't think it's going to track all the way over to the Yucatan. More like crossing the very western tip of Cuba, maybe.

Jan
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#10 Postby Normandy » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:16 am

That actually looks like the actual center to me.
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#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:17 am

Normandy wrote:That actually looks like the actual center to me.



If that is the center then this storm is discoupling. Which is bad for tropical cyclone formation. I'm not sure but I think that there is a rather large cirulation for the main storm.
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#12 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:18 am

Arlene might have some tricks up her sleave. The forecast almost seems to be too clear cut to be true. If she hit the Yucatan all bets are off.
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#13 Postby Normandy » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:20 am

If that is the center then this storm is discoupling. Which is bad for tropical cyclone formation. I'm not sure but I think that there is a rather large cirulation for the main storm.


I dont know it just seems that that center is at the center of all the cyclonic turning...and plus this system has never been truly organized anyway.
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#14 Postby tracyswfla » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:20 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Arlene might have some tricks up her sleave. The forecast almost seems to be too clear cut to be true. If she hit the Yucatan all bets are off.


I felt the same way... I think that this is not a cut and dry storm at all... I think that we are in for a roller coater ride with Arlene...
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#15 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:29 am

Guess maybe it was a transitory feature - in the 15:15utc frame, it seems to be dissipating.
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#16 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:13 am

Well ... now I don't know what to say ... this looks more and more like the real circulation center. If that's the case, the storm isn't moving much right now.

Can't wait for recon to get in there ... I want some "up close and personal" data. :-)

Jan
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#17 Postby Brent » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:14 am

x-y-no wrote:Well ... now I don't know what to say ... this looks more and more like the real circulation center. If that's the case, the storm isn't moving much right now.

Can't wait for recon to get in there ... I want some "up close and personal" data. :-)

Jan


Did Recon go in overnight or was the yesterday afternoon flight the last one?
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#18 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:16 am

Brent wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Well ... now I don't know what to say ... this looks more and more like the real circulation center. If that's the case, the storm isn't moving much right now.

Can't wait for recon to get in there ... I want some "up close and personal" data. :-)

Jan


Did Recon go in overnight or was the yesterday afternoon flight the last one?


Just the one flight yesterday. They should have already taken off on today's flight 1, but I haven't seen a recco message yet.

Jan
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:36 am

It makes me remember TD #7 in 2002.
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#20 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:40 am

Storm actually appears to be drifting WNW. It better start moving N quick to make it to the northern gulf coast by Saturday.
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