Landfall predictions thread

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GalvestonDuck
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Landfall predictions thread

#1 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:03 am

The following posts are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinions of the posters and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Anyone (including amateurs like me) want to make a forecast for landfall location and/or intensity?

Based on little more than gut instinct, what I've seen on the projection maps, and my thinking on how the Bermuda high will affect it, I think TS Arlene will make landfall in the Gulf Shores/Gulf State Park/Romar Beach area of Alabama (between Oyster Bay and Wolf Bay).
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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Sticking with what I said yesterday morning...

#2 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:05 am

Within 20 miles of Fort Walton Beach at 55knots with gusts to 70 knots
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#3 Postby Droop12 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:06 am

I'll take a swing at it and say Gulf Shores or Dauphin Island near Mobile Bay also. Is that ok if we agree or does it have to be all different locations? 8-)
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#4 Postby Brent » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:06 am

Somewhere near where Ivan hit... between Fort Morgan and Gulf Shores. Almost all of the strong winds will be over the Panhandle. I'm going with a 65-70 mph tropical storm, although I won't rule out a hurricane.
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Steve
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#5 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:08 am

It's no fun when you're 36-48 hours out. Check out Wednesday's thread before there was even any classification. I still like my call ;).

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

Steve
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#6 Postby Pebbles » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:14 am

I'm going to say I think she may go west of the Alabama state line between Gulfport and Pascagoula.

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#7 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:14 am

I say Grand Bay, Alabama then curve into Mobile.
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#8 Postby LAwxrgal » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:17 am

I'm with Brent, I'm thinking Ivan territory (MS, AL, FL panhandle) too unfortunately :( and have thought this way for 3 days.
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#9 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:18 am

FT Walton Beach/Destin - that was my original prediction, I'll stick with it.
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#10 Postby dhweather » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:19 am

I think between the Mouth of the Mississippi and Pensacola - probably
somewhere around Gulfport to Mobile.
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#11 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:24 am

Droop -- it's okay! Maybe we're both right. :wink:

Steve -- sorry, couldn't find it and wondered why no one had started one yet. :)
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#12 Postby jdray » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:26 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

I had already called a Panama City-Apalachicola with 60mph winds.
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#13 Postby Fla Panhandle » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:27 am

I say between Mobile/Pensacola.
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#14 Postby yzerfan » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:01 am

Since no one else has yet, I'll take Gulf Breeze-Navarre, FL. North Gulf storms always seem to wide right a little bit more than people first expect.
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#15 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:03 am

I said between Ocean Springs and Gulfport on Monday . Also said a minimal TS..oh well.. :D
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#16 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:06 am

I'll go for the center of the Alabama coast.
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#17 Postby SouthernWx » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:06 am

The same area I posted two days ago....between Bay St Louis, MS and Orange Beach, AL....highest strike probability being Pascagoula, Mississippi.

PW
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#18 Postby dhweather » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:07 am

SouthernWx wrote:The same area I posted two days ago....between Bay St Louis, MS and Orange Beach, AL....highest strike probability being Pascagoula, Mississippi.

PW


Perry, I think you are dead on.
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Apalachicola

#19 Postby slowjoe » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:10 am

I'm going out on a limb...but I haven't agreed with this western trend since day one.

Apalachicola gets hit with a Cat1.
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#20 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:11 am

I am still sticking with Gulfport/Biloxi. I did read a post about the ATL. High not being as strong as forecast. Anyone care to elaborate on this?
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