12z GFS in progress - maintains its 6z trend FL/AL border...

[Steve]

It's only out to day 3, but that's all you need right now. I wonder if any of the Floridians who bashed it and its compadre', the GFDL, for bringing the storm into SE LA for 8 or 9 runs in a row will suddlenly like this model and if those in SE LA or MS will suddenly find a reason to dislike it?


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_s.shtml

Steve

[yoda]

True... but the GFS was bad last year... we'll see if the modifications it receieved are good...

[Stormcenter]

It's only out to day 3, but that's all you need right now. I wonder if any of the Floridians who bashed it and its compadre', the GFDL, for bringing the storm into SE LA for 8 or 9 runs in a row will suddlenly like this model and if those in SE LA or MS will suddenly find a reason to dislike it?


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_s.shtml

Steve

I know one thing she is looking healthier and is headed NNW at a good clip. I say lookout MS/AL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Agua]

It's only out to day 3, but that's all you need right now. I wonder if any of the Floridians who bashed it and its compadre', the GFDL, for bringing the storm into SE LA for 8 or 9 runs in a row will suddlenly like this model and if those in SE LA or MS will suddenly find a reason to dislike it?


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_s.shtml

Steve

[Steve]

You know what storm? On that link to the IR/VIS loop over at SSD, it almost looks like a new center is forming as a compromise from the orbiting centers. In the last frame you can kind of see it wrapping on the west side now. Could just be a temporary pulse or might be the mechanism to kick that proverbial snowball rolling downhill with the feedback of heat.

That's probably the most interesting development of the day so far.

Steve

[yoda]

It's only out to day 3, but that's all you need right now. I wonder if any of the Floridians who bashed it and its compadre', the GFDL, for bringing the storm into SE LA for 8 or 9 runs in a row will suddlenly like this model and if those in SE LA or MS will suddenly find a reason to dislike it?


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_s.shtml

Steve

I know one thing she is looking healthier and is headed NNW at a good clip. I say lookout MS/AL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I agree. IMO, the GFS is retrograding the high east too quickly... as in the loop you can see it move the Bermuda High East... which would allow Arlene to make more of a track toward FL... but IMO, I believe the high will stay in place, forcing Arlene to move more towards AL/MS...

[Pigsnibble]

UKM 12Z still showing a straight shot to MS/AL....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Doesn't matter much to me, I'm in the central panhandle and will be wearing a raincoat regardless it appears.

[Javlin]

Whats moving the clouds W at about 27' maybe 28' N to the W.The whole mass of clouds is starting to align itself NW to SE.Now if the storm starts doing this then a change of direction is about to occur.Is it the supposed high that is moving them to the W.Just an ob.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[Steve]

I think that push is from the ridging in the Atlantic.

Steve

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah, I agree with you Casper and Steve. It looks as though the high is starting to have a little more influence on the storm. How much though we will just have to wait and see. It wouldn't surprise in the least if the models swing back to the left again later today on tonight.