Last minute information from a NOAA hurricane hunter required some
adjustments to the working forecast track. Recon found a pressure
of 989 mb in what appears to be a new but stronger low-level vortex
that developed beneath a deep convective burst that has been
rotating cyclonically around the east and north side of the larger
cyclonic gyre. I am not ready to key in on the west-northwestward
motion of that circulation during the past 3 hours...so the initial
position and motion of 330/14 is a longer term blend of recon and
satellite positions and motion. The initial intensity of 60 kt is
based on 850 mb flight-level winds of 75 kt in the northeast quad.
The official forecast track was shifted a little to the left of the
previous track due to the more westward initial position... and
subsequent tracks may have to be shifted a little more to the west
if the west-northwestward motion trend continues for another 6
hours. However...my feeling is that some significant wobbling will
occur along a general north-northwest to northwestward track until
landfall occurs. This is mainly due to vertical shear and
occasional intrusions of dry air eroding the deep convection and
causing the low-level center to constantly reform near new
convective bursts. This track is consistent with the NHC model
consensus and the low- to mid-level southeasterly steering flow.
Timing the various convective bursts is nearly impossible. However
...Arlene will be going into the convective maximum period later
tonight and Saturday morning...so some new deep convection should
redevelop near the low-level center and possibly allow the cyclone
to become a category 1 hurricane. However...southwesterly vertical
shear is forecast to gradually increase as Arlene approaches the
Gulf Coast...so some fluctuations in intensity should be expected.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/0300z 27.1n 86.1w 60 kt
12hr VT 11/1200z 28.7n 87.0w 65 kt
24hr VT 12/0000z 31.0n 88.0w 55 kt...inland
36hr VT 12/1200z 33.5n 88.0w 30 kt...dissipating inland
48hr VT 13/0000z 37.0n 87.6w 20 kt...dissipating inland
72hr VT 14/0000z...dissipated inland
$$
Breaking news!!!! Arlene maybe moving WNW!!!!
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LAwxrgal
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IT's a wobble. Storms do this! 
Last edited by LAwxrgal on Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
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Wake me up when November ends
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LAwxrgal
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HurryKane wrote:air360 wrote:they promised you a nickel for everytime its said to!! wow!! great!
They didn't say from who, though. Check's in the mail and all that.
There's an intermediate advisory between 11 pm and 5 am, right?
2 am...they're doing it every 3 hours since she's close to land and all that.
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Wake me up when November ends
I thought it was every two when warnings were out and landfall was close.
Last edited by dhweather on Fri Jun 10, 2005 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HurryKane
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LAwxrgal wrote:HurryKane wrote:air360 wrote:they promised you a nickel for everytime its said to!! wow!! great!
They didn't say from who, though. Check's in the mail and all that.
There's an intermediate advisory between 11 pm and 5 am, right?
2 am...they're doing it every 3 hours since she's close to land and all that.
Thanks, everybody for the quick answer. Brain blip on my part.
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