Buoy 42057 has had a SW wind most of the day..

[tw861]

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

I sure that this is not a typical flow for this area.

Also go to:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

And click on the VIS and IR floater over the western Carribean. It shows wind reports over the SAT pic. It looks like there is a broad circulation west and southwest of Jamaica moving west and void of any real convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is over Jamaica. We need to watch this again because the upper low is now moving over Florida. In is starting to weaken. A 10 knot decrease in shear has happen over the system. When this center moves off the coast of jamaica it "might" Try to tighten maybe even try to get some of that eastern convection around it. 6 to 12 hours is more then enough time for a system to do so.

[senorpepr]

I wouldn't be too excitied at this time over the southwesterly winds, although interesting. Wind speeds are 2 knots gusting to 4.

[Brent]

I wouldn't be too excitied at this time over the southwesterly winds, although interesting. Wind speeds are 2 knots gusting to 4.

Quick!!! Someone issue a Hurricane Warning!!!

[Scorpion]

Lol 2 knots thats like calm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is what I can see. I see that the cirualtion is starting to move off the north coast of Jamaica. Centered near 19 north/78 west. It is moving northward. I also see the first hints of convection trying to wrap around the northern side of it. With the shear slowly decreasing unless a reinforment of shear comes down over the next 12 hours. Then when it moves back over the water which should give it 6 to 12 hours over water before landfall over near are base/over eastern Cuba.

This is only my option. Take it for what its worth.


Press the first visible satellite.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html