Models for 93L=Tracks go to Mexico

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cycloneye
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Models for 93L=Tracks go to Mexico

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:01 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050615 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050615 1800 050616 0600 050616 1800 050617 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.7W 19.6N 96.5W 19.9N 97.0W
BAMM 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.8W 19.4N 96.7W 19.6N 97.4W
A98E 18.6N 94.6W 19.4N 95.9W 19.9N 97.0W 20.2N 97.9W
LBAR 18.6N 94.6W 19.2N 95.7W 19.7N 96.7W 20.3N 97.5W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 24KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050617 1800 050618 1800 050619 1800 050620 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 97.3W 20.1N 97.9W 19.9N 98.9W 19.1N 100.8W
BAMM 19.8N 98.0W 20.1N 99.6W 20.5N 102.3W 21.1N 105.6W
A98E 20.4N 98.3W 20.9N 98.7W 21.4N 99.5W 21.2N 101.5W
LBAR 20.8N 98.2W 22.2N 98.8W 23.7N 99.8W 24.2N 101.0W
SHIP 38KTS 43KTS 44KTS 40KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 94.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 93.2W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 91.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

I dont understand at all this model run as they go to Mexico with it and the most bizzare thing is that a tropical storm develops inland. :roll: I hope that grafics come out soon and you will see the tracks.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:13 pm

Image
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:16 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:Image


No those are not the tracks for 93L as that is an old grafic. I think that was for Lisa last year.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:17 pm

It seems to add up with the model plots that you have posted.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:25 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:It seems to add up with the model plots that you have posted.


What shows up at grafic is located in the Central Atlantic not in the Bay of Campeche as I said above it looks like those tracks were for Lisa last year.
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#6 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:29 pm

Hit refresh, Luis. I had the same thing pop up (central Atlantic). When I refreshed, it shown the Gulf of Mexico.
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#7 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:30 pm

Look at the graphic closely, you will see parts of southern texas, and southern florida, not to mention all that mexico land as well.

Now I also know what you talking about earlier the graphics was in the central atlantic.
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:31 pm

senorpepr wrote:Hit refresh, Luis. I had the same thing pop up (central Atlantic). When I refreshed, it shown the Gulf of Mexico.


:oops: :oops: Yes there it is. :)
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#9 Postby CFL » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:32 pm

:lol: Didn't one of the models show Arlene as a cat 1 over St. Louis, Missouri? I'm taking it that while the models may get the track right sometimes it's pretty clueless on intensity.
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:33 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:Look at the graphic closely, you will see parts of southern texas, and southern florida, not to mention all that mexico land as well.

Now I also know what you talking about earlier the graphics was in the central atlantic.


Ok bad that I didn't refresh. :oops: .
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:37 pm

I am concerned. These June/July BOC storms always tend to be in an extremely favorable environment, but usually hit land quick. If this drifts north, then we have a problem.
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#12 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:39 pm

Well, remember that SHIP doesn't take decaying from land into account. That would be the job of DSHIP (or decay SHIP), which doesn't even bring this to 30kt.
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#13 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:49 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:I am concerned. These June/July BOC storms always tend to be in an extremely favorable environment, but usually hit land quick. If this drifts north, then we have a problem.


You have good reason to be concerned, although I don't believe 93L will pose that threat. As you say, yes, this region is very favorable for development, typically. The only thing holding this sucker back would be land.

In the case of 93L, it appears that the steering currents will keep it pretty much on the same course as it is now, about 310° or NW. It's currently running at 8kt. If it were, say, half that, I would be concerned about the potential for drifting northward, but with 8kt, it looks like the flow is well established.

Regardless of development, the key will be heavy rainfall along the Mexican coast. Mudslides can't be ruled out. However, I guess the bright side to 93L is it will provide relief to central Mexico, which is having some fire problems.
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:49 pm

senorpepr wrote:Well, remember that SHIP doesn't take decaying from land into account. That would be the job of DSHIP (or decay SHIP), which doesn't even bring this to 30kt.


Yes you are right about that.
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#15 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jun 15, 2005 7:29 pm

With the big trough digging in, looks like the models are having problems but will swing right hopefully when the recon goes out tomorrow and they find a definite center.

Image
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#16 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Wed Jun 15, 2005 8:57 pm

I think the GFDL is....interesting....
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#17 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:00 pm

Code: Select all

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION     INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050616  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050616  0000   050616  1200   050617  0000   050617  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    18.8N  95.2W   19.2N  96.2W   19.4N  96.9W   19.4N  97.6W
  BAMM    18.8N  95.2W   19.1N  96.3W   19.1N  97.1W   19.0N  97.9W
  A98E    18.8N  95.2W   19.3N  96.2W   19.7N  97.1W   20.1N  97.9W
  LBAR    18.8N  95.2W   19.1N  96.3W   19.5N  97.3W   20.1N  97.9W
  SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          28KTS          34KTS
  DSHP        20KTS          21KTS          25KTS          26KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050618  0000   050619  0000   050620  0000   050621  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    19.4N  98.2W   19.4N  99.7W   19.2N 102.0W   18.6N 105.3W
  BAMM    18.9N  98.8W   18.9N 101.0W   19.0N 104.6W   19.1N 109.1W
  A98E    20.7N  98.3W   21.8N  99.3W   22.5N 100.2W   21.9N 100.4W
  LBAR    20.5N  98.6W   21.9N  99.8W   22.9N 101.2W   23.0N 103.4W
  SHIP        39KTS          47KTS          51KTS          49KTS
  DSHP        26KTS          27KTS          30KTS          28KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  18.8N LONCUR =  95.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
  LATM12 =  18.1N LONM12 =  93.9W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
  LATM24 =  17.3N LONM24 =  92.5W
  WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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#18 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:00 pm

Image
Make sure you hit refresh to ensure it's the newest map...
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