6-23-05 2:05 PM EDT TWD, WAVE EXPECTED TO BREAK APART

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:12 pm

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W S OF 22N MOVING W 15
KT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED S OF HISPANIOLA...
WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 72W-77W.
HOWEVER...THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
AXIS REACHING NWD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SRN
BAHAMAS...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO
BREAK OUT FROM ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 68W-72W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS/
TSTMS ARE LOCATED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI AND THE REST OF THE
SRN BAHAMAS. THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NW BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48
HRS...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN PART OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING W AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN BY FRI AND SAT.

Things are getting more confusing by the minute! :wall:

#2 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:24 pm

>>Things are getting more confusing by the minute!

I disagree. Several posters (including me) have been alluding to this possibility all along. It's a complex situation with a lot of tug and pull. It's something many of the forecast models can't handle, but it's a pretty basic concept. Relax

.

Steve

#3 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:31 pm

Steve wrote:>>Things are getting more confusing by the minute!

I disagree. Several posters (including me) have been alluding to this possibility all along. It's a complex situation with a lot of tug and pull. It's something many of the forecast models can't handle, but it's a pretty basic concept. Relax .

Steve

It was the only way I could figure that some of the models were finding something to develop in the S GOM over the weekend. We saw this just last week in the BOC and crossing over into the EPAC.

#4 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:36 pm

>>It was the only way I could figure that some of the models were finding something to develop in the S GOM over the weekend. We saw this just last week in the BOC and crossing over into the EPAC

Indeed. The wave would march on while a piece of it would get sheared off or entrained into the MLL/ULL where it almost created a phasing situation (which this would technically be different, but a similar outcome). The ECMWF was focusing on the wave axis itself as the primary focus while the feedback-issue models were focusing almost solely on the SE Atlantic Coast. Whatever we end up with, it's a two for the price of one.

Which reminds me. Does anyone remember that storm from 3 or 4 years ago that had a hand in spawning or merging with like 3 other named storms? I thought Edouard had something to do with it (ended up getting entrained into Fay{e}), but that wasn't the original system.

Steve

Guest · #5 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:40 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Convection is exploding in the the SW Carribbean sea

#6 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:59 pm

IF that freakin' cold low over S FL would get on out of the way.......

HurricaneJoe22 · #7 Postby **HurricaneJoe22** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:07 pm

that low is gumming up the works....IMO, nothing will develop in the Caribbean unless both of these happen: convection persists and the low moves off to the NE

#8 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:50 pm

I agree Joe, the low has got to leave, and the convection must persist.

6-23-05 2:05 PM EDT TWD, WAVE EXPECTED TO BREAK APART

6-23-05 2:05 PM EDT TWD, WAVE EXPECTED TO BREAK APART

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