It has an eye and moving NNW!!!!!

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:55 pm

It has an eye (I know it can't be one but it sure looks like one) and moving NNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#2 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:02 pm

Hey...you're right! I see it too! It can't really be an eye, but it does look like it's in the "center".

jax · #3 Postby **jax** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:05 pm

bret's eye...

#4 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:43 pm

Although there is little question that this has been, at least, a depression for some time today, there is little if any chance that this system is a hurricane.

That said, the feature that looks like a center may be a warm-spot in the clouds...and even if it were that percieved motion to the NNW is more than likely just a wobble or a sucker hole spinning around a broader circulation.

I am sure the reason for the recon flight is that the system won't be around tomorrow...so they are getting down there to see how strong of a tropical cyclone we are dealing with.

MW

PTrackerLA · #5 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:47 pm

Hey even if it's goign to make landfall soon it's still a storm in the Atlantic basin (well BOC but same thing) and should be counted as one as well. It would already be classified if it was in the northern GOM IMO.

Normandy · #6 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:49 pm

Id actually agree that that looks like the center....as for NNW movement can't really tell.

#7 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:52 pm

I don't think we're dealing with a cane. Depression, yes, Storm? Maybe.

#8 Postby **Trader Ron** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:52 pm

Stormcenter wrote:It has an eye (I know it can't be one but it sure looks like one) and moving NNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

NNW?..Hmmmmmm

#9 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:54 pm

skysummit wrote:I don't think we're dealing with a cane. Depression, yes, Storm? Maybe.

Agree, a TS maybe but not a cane.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#10 Postby **Steve** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:58 pm

You can see the blowup on the eastern side of the center trying to wrap around. I think the system's moving between West and WNW. But don't be surprised if it runs up the Mexican coast a bit before going inland. The 06z GFDL hinted at that as does the 12z GFS. That's going to be all she wrote as this thing isn't coming back N/NNE/NE to affect the upper Gulf Coast except for the convection that is along the surface trough already plaguing points east of New Orleans.

Steve

#11 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:59 pm

I just looked at the water vapor over Texas and the western Gulf. Is it even possible that he could stall for a day or so and then eventually turn north then northeast and follow that "wet/dry" line toward the eastern GOM ? I highly doubt it, but it's a thought that crossed my mind and would like further input.

#12 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:03 pm

skysummit wrote:I just looked at the water vapor over Texas and the western Gulf. Is it even possible that he could stall for a day or so and then eventually turn north then northeast and follow that "wet/dry" line toward the eastern GOM ? I highly doubt it, but it's a thought that crossed my mind and would like further input.

Not likely but with tropical systems as we ALL know anything
is possible.

#13 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:06 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
skysummit wrote:I just looked at the water vapor over Texas and the western Gulf. Is it even possible that he could stall for a day or so and then eventually turn north then northeast and follow that "wet/dry" line toward the eastern GOM ? I highly doubt it, but it's a thought that crossed my mind and would like further input.

Not likely but with tropical systems as we ALL know anything
is possible.

Exactly. I just saw how far that dry air has come into Mexico...about halfway down into the counry and figured "hey, if this is what's stopping him from going north for the meantime, can it stop him from going further west? It was just a while hair on my butt, that's all

#14 Postby **Trader Ron** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:06 pm

I have bad eyes, but that system is moving West. :lol:

#15 Postby **Steve** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:08 pm

Anything's possible, but that scenario is unlikely. More likely is that the trof breaks up sending a piece of energy in to Alabama/Florida as just a 2-3" rain swath. As for Houma, what you see is what you get. Btw, aren't you guys actually SW of New Orleans?

Steve

#16 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:11 pm

Trader Ron wrote:I have bad eyes, but that system is moving West.

Almost due west, no doubt!

Swimdude · #17 Postby **Swimdude** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:13 pm

dhweather wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:I have bad eyes, but that system is moving West.

Almost due west, no doubt!

Yeah it's moving west. The center will be over land within hours. Not sure why everyone's making a huge deal over this.

TS Zack · #18 Postby **TS Zack** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 2:18 pm

We always have to watch these type of systems because it is possible they may stall out for a few days. Thats why the BOC is so dangerous! If a system stalls over it, uh oh, Cat 3-4 within 2 days.

Right Now a ridge across Mexico and the East Coast. Steering currents are weak but a Westward motion should continue at a very slow clip.

It has an eye and moving NNW!!!!!

It has an eye and moving NNW!!!!!

Re: It has an eye and moving NNW!!!!!

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