Will a invest be up for Tropical Atlantic Wave or not?

[cycloneye]

There is a good chance to see 96L in the Atlantic if the wave organizes more.

[dhweather]

I think it has a 50/50 chance to be an invest - so I'll tilt in favor
of the invest based on a relatively favorable environment.

[cycloneye]

I forgot to post an image of the wave but here it is.

[Scorpion]

Looks decent. Should be an invest.

[KatDaddy]

Definitely an Invest down the road. A very early CV wave with potential.

[gkrangers]

With as far away as it is from land (and the fact its June), I have a feeling they let it sit and do its thing for a bit. If it holds together or gets more organized over the next day or three, then theres a better chance of them issuing an invest.

[Coredesat]

The wave looks pretty decent, but I voted no invest, at least not for a couple days. They'll probably put one up as it gets closer to land unless it organizes before then.

[cycloneye]

Another view of wave in Atlantic.It has a big signature although convection is not plenty.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will give it one thing is as a big area. But the convectoin is not there for a invest. In no I hope they would not sit on it if it did.

[Swimdude]

Well, Bret's gone, and we're already back to predicting storms that haven't even occured yet. Ahhh. I love you guys.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats what we do here. We forecast the development of tropical cyclones or track them.

[earthquake~weather]

personally, I think they will wait until it gets a little closer to land before slapping an invest on it .....especially considering how early it is for a cape system....

[loon]

Well, Bret's gone, and we're already back to predicting storms that haven't even occured yet. Ahhh. I love you guys.

Man o man you would love my weather man then...not a cloud in the sky today, and you know what, he is predicting rain on sunday and monday...I mean, then NERVE of that guy...

[mobilebay]

Well the Models sure have faith in the system! I just looked at the 00Z GFS, and the Canadian and found they both have it just Northeast of the Lesser Antilles in about 144 hours. Impressive!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The gfs already has it as a low pressure..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/36.html


MM5 has it already.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 912/3.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There appears that we got some slight oreganizion going on near 13 north/32.5 west. Very little satelilte out of the area. The models do develop it with shear levels at 10 to 15 knots with pockets of 20 knot shear. Interesting...This is a very hard area to pin anything down. The Gfs shows that is developing. It tracks it west-northwestward over the next 24 to 36 hours then pulls it northwestard afterwards. With all the model support I'm expecting something.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

[dhweather]

Well the Models sure have faith in the system! I just looked at the 00Z GFS, and the Canadian and found they both have it just Northeast of the Lesser Antilles in about 144 hours. Impressive!

Woohoo! we get to hurry up and wait!

[Derek Ortt]

I am seeing clear signs of a circulation this morning on the visible sat images. will run the model again today on this system. Am looking for consistency (and figuring out this back-up vortex tracking program that has a mind of its own)

[cycloneye]

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 22N MOVING
W 10 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT CAN EASILY BE
FOUND FROM CURVATURE IN THE LOW/MID CLOUDINESS. THERE ARE
MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES..
NEAR 8N41W AND 12.5N34W. COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY MOVE THIS
WAVE SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
SORT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM AT 12.5N34W
SEEMS TO BE THE ONE TO WATCH FOR NOW AS IT HAS THE BEST TURNING
AND CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 30W-41W. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT.. THIS WAVE SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE WINDS UP TO 25 KT NEAR AND NE OF THE
WAVE AXIS AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY W.

2:05 Discussion interesting.



You can see the turning in the clouds at pic.

[cycloneye]

THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP THE WAVE NOW NEAR 38 WEST. IT SPINS UP A
STRONG CYCLONE OFF OF THAT WAVE LATE MONDAY BEFORE IT REACHES 60
WEST. THIS CYCLONE THEN EJECTS TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK.
WHILE THIS HAS MORE POSSIBILITY OF HAPPENING...IT ALSO MAKES
FORECASTING THE LEVEL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEK MORE
DIFFICULT...SINCE THAT CYCLONE WOULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THAT WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN
TRANSLATED INTO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
PERHAPS THURSDAY. AS THE GFS SOLUTION STANDS...THE WAVE APPEARS MUCH
MORE WEAKLY ONCE IT HAS CROSSED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MOISTURE IS
ONLY ADEQUATE FOR OUR USUAL DIURNAL SHOWER PATTERN. THE LAST WAVE ON
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MOISTURE THAT WOULD BE
A SIGNAL OF AN ACTIVE WAVE. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE GROUND ON CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE COMING WEEK...SINCE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE THAT CONNECTS THE WAVE AND THE EJECTED LOW IS ALSO SUBJECT
TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.


The above an excerpt from the discussion of the NWS in San Juan this afternoon talking all about the next week scenario