Broad Invest 93W

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8N 136.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPEC-
TRAL IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012130Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS
ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS WITH PROBABLE FLOW INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.




The system looks kind of impressive but is really broad, let see what happens, the WPAC is kind of falling behind of schedule!

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like it's organizing a little bit

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.8N
136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 136.3E, 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MIN-
IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

Nothing new!

[senorpepr]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the JMA, PAGASA, and JTWC products.

Well, here's my take on 93W: yet another strike-out. It's way too close to the southern Philippines for any sensible development. Regardless, I do expect a great deal of convection across the southern half of the Philippines with isolated convection for the northern half, to include Manila. 93W has yet to pull itself north off of the ITCZ. I believe it will continue in the westerly direction and cross the South China Sea. By that time, I believe it will begin to be pulled into the monsoonal flow, bringing it into southern Vietnam and Cambodia. It will probably spell a slight increase in convection (from the normal monsoonal flow) throughout Indochina.

Bottom line: Tropical cyclone development is not expected.

[Ola]

Thats a big eye