NW Caribbean Invest developing nicely this a.m.....

[dixiebreeze]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[skysummit]

It sure does...much better than at 3 a.m. It only 5 hours it seems to be a different player.

[wxboy]

yep. nice circulation. good outflow. Everything is coming together.

[Guest]

What time is recon going in?

[skysummit]

What time is recon going in?

I believe they were scheduled for 4p.m., but I may be wrong.

[wxboy]

dunno. Sometime this afternoon. I really don't see it getting canceled.

[Air Force Met]

I posted this elsewhere...I'll put it here too...

There is definetly a low out there now. Look at the low level cu field off the coast of Belize. The clouds are moving east around something that appears to be near 19.5 / 86. So...it's not the old one from yesterday...but a newer one.

[skysummit]

I guess this means recon will probably not cancel their flight and we could "maybe" have a TD out there this afternoon If a LLC is forming further north and east of the old one, this is going to throw the models off, and she has a better chance of staying over water instead of going straight through the YP. I still do believe she may clip the tip though.

You know, yesterday Floydbuster was saying this will clip the YP, and there were many against him. If this does shape out to do so, I will be very impressed

[dixiebreeze]

I posted this elsewhere...I'll put it here too...

There is definetly a low out there now. Look at the low level cu field off the coast of Belize. The clouds are moving east around something that appears to be near 19.5 / 86. So...it's not the old one from yesterday...but a newer one.

Thanks, AFMet, I thought so, too, but wasn't sure yet. Everyone in the GOM should be on the alert. Wonder what the models are saying. Anyone know?

[wxboy]

yep. moving NW. definately a new LLC. check out my other post in one of the other of today's threads.

[cycloneye]

I posted this elsewhere...I'll put it here too...

There is definetly a low out there now. Look at the low level cu field off the coast of Belize. The clouds are moving east around something that appears to be near 19.5 / 86. So...it's not the old one from yesterday...but a newer one.

Thanks, AFMet, I thought so, too, but wasn't sure yet. Everyone in the GOM should be on the alert. Wonder what the models are saying. Anyone know?

Go to the thread 96L for Caribbean System at page 8.

[Derek Ortt]

if the center is at 86W, then recon should be cancelled as it will be inland in about 6-12 hours, before recon gets in

[dixiebreeze]

if the center is at 86W, then recon should be cancelled as it will be inland in about 6-12 hours, before recon gets in

I'll be very surprised if Recon is cancelled.

[skysummit]

if the center is at 86W, then recon should be cancelled as it will be inland in about 6-12 hours, before recon gets in

I'll be very surprised if Recon is cancelled.

Yea...I thought it would be over land by this morning, or at least 11a.m., but that will not happen. It does looked to be forming further east than I thought yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

if the center is at 86W, then recon should be cancelled as it will be inland in about 6-12 hours, before recon gets in

Lets waut for the 11:30 AM TWO.

[wxboy]

the center is NOT at 86W. it is MUCH further east.

[Derek Ortt]

the center is in no way, shape or form east of 86W.

What data do you have to refute the hard data suggesting 86W as the cnter? Satellite imagery doesn't cut it for this type of a system

[skysummit]

It does seem to me that it's still moving West though on visible. Maybe just a a tad north of due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

[Agua]

The clouds are moving east around something that appears to be near 19.5 / 86.

I *think* I see it. I can't tell if those clouds close to the center of circulation on the north side are mid or lower level tops.

[dixiebreeze]

From the 8 a.m. NHC discussion:

The Caribbean Sea...
most of the attention is going toward the strong western
Caribbean tropical wave. The heavy rain showers cover a big area
from 15n to 21n between 80w and 84w...including on top of the
Cayman Islands. This feature is forecast to be a possible
tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The tropical wave
currently along 51w/52w may reach the edge of the eastern
Caribbean Sea during the next 24 to 30 hours. One area of strong
showers and thunderstorms accompanies it now. Other areas of
rain are to the east and west of it also. Middle to upper level
dry air covers the area east of 77w. Tradewind showers are south
of 18n between 60w and 73w moving westward.
The Atlantic Ocean...
a middle to upper level trough runs along 50w more or less...
north of 21n. Middle to upper level cyclonic flow with this
trough is north of 20n between 35w and 60w. Isolated moderate
showers and thunderstorms...weakening during the last four to
six hours...were from 28n to 32n between 46w and 49w. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are more
active from 24n to 30n between 57w and 62w. Broad upper level
westerly flow...except for the central Atlantic trough...and
little to no deep showers and thunderstorms save for the ITCZ.
Broad surface anticyclonic flow between Africa and 80w. A
surface ridge runs from the central Atlantic toward the
Bahamas...poking its way into The Straits of Florida and
eventually into the south central Gulf of Mexico.
$$
MT