airforce met...

freeport_texas22 · #1 Postby **freeport_texas22** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:40 am

so in ur expert opinion this is a "north texas cost"/ la storm or more around new orlens?

#2 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:44 am

freeport_texas22 wrote:so in ur expert opinion this is a "north texas cost"/ la storm or more around new orlens?

Yes...I think NO will get some rain because it is lop-sided...but I've been on the TX/LA state line since the beginning...and until the center FINALLY decided to get placed and established in the flow....I'll stay there. Once that happens...I might have to shift.

One thing people need to remember...the movement of this thing over the last day has been more about redevelopment and readjustment than true movement...and until it is finally made up it's mind where it will get going...final landfall is anywhere from mid-TX to cntl LA. I do believe, however, that the other mid level vorticity that we saw yesterday is in the process of being ejected out of the system...which should finally allow for some good consolidation.

#3 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:45 am

And that's exactly what the 11am track shows....TX/LA line.

Sean in New Orleans · #4 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:48 am

If I was in Houston, I would watch closely, but, I wouldn't be overly concerned. Even if this system hits Lake Charles, the effects on Houston will be minimal. Strike zone lies between Abbeville, LA and Grand Isle, LA, IMO, at this time....

#5 Postby **jeff** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:52 am

Everyone needs to remember not to focus on the exact track. A TC is not a point it has far reaching effects. Adverse weather conditions will likely be experienced from the lower part of the Upper TX coast to SE LA. This could range from TS force conditions to squalls and heavy rainfall

Johnny · #6 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:53 am

I just got through watching Joe B's tropical update video and he is calling for a central Louisiana coast hit. What are y'alls thoughts on that AFM and Derek?

#7 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:56 am

Johnny wrote:I just got through watching Joe B's tropical update video and he is calling for a central Louisiana coast hit. What are y'alls thoughts on that AFM and Derek?

I think it all depends on the final center. I do like what the TPC said in the early morning discussion...a weaker system will move more west than a stronger one. I think JB is close either way....but final determination rests in the hands of our TD...and where the LLC gets going.

#8 Postby **GulfHills** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:02 am

On the water vapor loop, it shows massive dry air over Texas. Wouldn't that keep this system from going there?

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