What went wrong?

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Ivanhater
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What went wrong?

#1 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:03 pm

a couple of days ago it seemed that td3 might be a pretty strong hurricane..any thoughts why that scenario isnt playing out?
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Re: What went wrong?

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:04 pm

ivanhater wrote:a couple of days ago it seemed that td3 might be a pretty strong hurricane..any thoughts why that scenario isnt playing out?


Outflow from Dora at EPAC affected it last night.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:04 pm

Maybe not surviving as expected its path over the Yucatan Peninsula.
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#4 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:04 pm

TD 3 was never predicted to even be a hurricane by the NHC.

To answer the question though... land, and some dry air and shear.
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#5 Postby LSU2001 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:05 pm

The game aint over yet by any means but the trip across the yucatan, shear from EPAC system, and center reformations have so far inhibited the system i think. WHen a storm takes longer to get its act together it has much less time to intensify.
TIm
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#6 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:06 pm

thats true but i just remember everyone saying conditions appear to be very favorable for development
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#7 Postby feederband » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:11 pm

She's not done......
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#8 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:24 pm

feederband wrote:She's not done......



She is FAR from done yet my fellow posters. I was hoping we'd get some rain here but obviously that won't be the case.
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#9 Postby SouthernWx » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:27 pm

ivanhater wrote:thats true but i just remember everyone saying conditions appear to be very favorable for development


I'm usually on the aggressive side when forecasting intensity, and I only went as high as 75-80 mph at landfall (and feel it won't even be that strong now). For one reason, there's a lot of dry air available to be entrained and weaken any deepening storm. Also, climatology is against a major hurricane this early; only 2 or 3 major July hurricanes have impacted the U.S. since 1900....the last way back in 1936.

A major hurricane can never be ruled out in the GOM when sst's are 84°+....but it is an extremely rare event BEFORE early August.

PW
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#10 Postby CajunMama » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:31 pm

according to our local met, dry air to the west is hampering td3.
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#11 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:40 pm

thats true ... it still has a full day ahead of her, who knows
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#12 Postby LSU2001 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:59 pm

looks like on Infrared that Dora's outflow might be pushing on the west side as well


Image
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