Cindy forecast #3: Landfall in or around New Orleans

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
NJN WEATHER CENTER
TROPICAL STORM CINDY
610 AM TUES JULY 5TH 2005

Cindy, as disorganized as she is.. gained her name over night and is slowly trying to organize as she begins to move through the GOM. The tropical storm currently has winds around 40-45 mph with higher gusts.

Cindy's thunderstorms are starting to become a little more organized as they try to wrap around the center. The warm waters of the GOM may help Cindy go through some intensification before she makes landfall sometime in the next 48-60 hours or so.

Cindy's forecast track and my official forecast have her making landfall somewhere around New Orleans on Thursday. Then being shot to the NE by an approaching front. Cindy should then go through Mississippi, Alabama and maybe even Georgia before exiting into the Atlantic as a disorganized low pressure center.

Cindy also should not reach hurricane status and make landfall as a medium tropical storm. She may have a lot of warm water, but her trip over the Yucatan probably killed any shot at her being a hurricane.

Here is our experimental 5 day forecast on Cindy:
Today: Trekking through the western Gulf, some strengthening. Max Winds: 45 mph
Wednesday:Nearing the Louisiana shore. Max Winds: 55 mph
Thursday: Well inland, lots of rain.. weakening. Max Winds: 35 mph
Friday: A lot of rain over Georgia, remnant low. Max Winds: 25 mph
Saturday:Well outta here.. Over the Carolina's. Max Winds: 15 mph

DISCLAIMER
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TxAggie]

I like the format, very easy to read. Also has a good chance of being accurate based on other guidance I've seen. Good Job!

[skysummit]

The only thing I disagree with is landfall at New Orleans. New Orleans is appx 55 miles inland so landfall there is impossible

[Steve]

Only 55 miles inland (north) from the Gulf Shoreline. We're on the Gulf to our east if you consider that Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Borne don't have any more barrier islands to keep the Gulf out of them.

Steve

[tailgater]

I think a lot of people are blowing Cindy off. This could be a mistake there's a decent chance she'll continue to intensify and reach Hurricane status before landfall. Now that she finally has a center she could deepen as most predicted 2 days back. Winds are fairly brisk off the coast already so coastal flooding could be problem. I'll predict 65 mph if she maintains this forward speed. This is just my personal opinion. Your thoughts
appreciated.

[feederband]

I still saying lots of warm water ahead...min ..cane...IMO...

[skysummit]

Only 55 miles inland (north) from the Gulf Shoreline. We're on the Gulf to our east if you consider that Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Borne don't have any more barrier islands to keep the Gulf out of them.

Steve

I realize that. I guess I should've said "the direction she's traveling in". If she was coming from the southeast then NOLA could be landfall. I was just playing around with the technicality of the word "landfall".

[T-man]

I live on the bayou in between Grand Isle and New Orleans. I sure hope it doesn't strengthen too much..........