Tampa -
..NOW IT STARTS TO GET INTERESTING
BY FRIDAY...THE "DENNIS WATCH" IS IN FULL SWING. WITH LARGE
CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...EXPECT OUTER FEEDER BANDS TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTH 1/3 AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES...REACHING THE NATURE COAST LAST.
SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL INITIALLY BE PINNED TO THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE PENINSULA.
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...AS DECENT GRADIENT BEGINS TO SET UP BETWEEN DENNIS AND THE
1020+ MB HIGH PARKED SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. HOWEVER...AT A
MINIMUM RESIDENTS CAN COUNT ON FEEDER BAND ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY. THIS MEANS PERIODS OF CALM FOLLOWED BY GUSTY SQUALLS
WITH LOCALLY BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS. WITH EXPECTED PLUME(S) OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF DENNIS (THIS IS UNLIKE IVAN
WHICH WAS COMPLETELY WRAPPED UP AS A STRONG CAT 4 AT NEARLY THE SAME
LOCATION)...THE EFFECTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
GEORGES (1998) WHICH PRODUCED SEVERAL SPIN-UP TORNADOES IN WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL MENTION IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONE THING'S FOR CERTAIN: ENJOY THE BEACH
NOW...'CAUSE IT WILL BE GETTING A BIT MESSY OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CUT DOWN A HAIR CENTRAL/SOUTH DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TRANSITION TO A MORE TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT. HAVE CUT VALUES FURTHER ON SATURDAY...A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO. WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON PRECIP COVERAGE/QPF
A BIT MORE THIS TIME TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE FINAL TRACK? THE BATTLE IS "ON" BETWEEN THE RECEDING
BUT STILL STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND WEAK BUT NOTABLE TROUGH(S)
UPSTREAM...SPECIFICALLY AN IMPULSE SLIGHTLY ADDING TO THE MEAN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF. THE 00Z MODEL TRACKS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE A BIT...
STILL FAVORING PASSAGE THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF BUT NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST. WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE IF JAMAICA'S
MOUNTAINS HELP SUBTLY ALTER THE TRACK LATER THIS MORNING. STAY
TUNED...AND CONTINUE TO CONSULT NHC FORECASTS AT
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)
THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS BASED ON A
NHC/GFS TRACK OF HURRICANE DENNIS MOVING NORTHWARD...OVER THE GULF
WATERS WEST OF THE CWFA SUN...UP THE THE MISS. RIVER VALLEY FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETINS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS W/SEAS
10-12FT AT LEAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUN AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS STILL A GOOD
BET SUN WITH SLIGHTLY LOW AFTERNOON MAXES.
Around the horn: Dennis related comments in NWS AFD's
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Tallahassee-
BY SATURDAY LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE STARTING TO SEE THE
EFFECTS HURRICANE DENNIS AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
INCREASING CLOUDS...POPS AND WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE PATH OF DENNIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...YET DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED.
THE BIG STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE DENNIS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FROM TPC SHOWS DENNIS MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO FRI NIGHT AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE, AND THEN PROGRESSING
NNWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE SAME INTENSITY,
WITH A LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA EARLY MON MORNING. WE USED THE TCM
TOOL TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
THEN BLENDED IN THE 06Z GFS AFTER THAT. WE WENT ABOVE MEX POPS FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EWD TPC TRACK FOR
DENNIS.
BY SATURDAY LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE STARTING TO SEE THE
EFFECTS HURRICANE DENNIS AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
INCREASING CLOUDS...POPS AND WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE PATH OF DENNIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...YET DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED.
THE BIG STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE DENNIS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FROM TPC SHOWS DENNIS MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO FRI NIGHT AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE, AND THEN PROGRESSING
NNWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE SAME INTENSITY,
WITH A LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA EARLY MON MORNING. WE USED THE TCM
TOOL TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
THEN BLENDED IN THE 06Z GFS AFTER THAT. WE WENT ABOVE MEX POPS FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EWD TPC TRACK FOR
DENNIS.
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Mobile -
WITH EACH SHIFT
WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONCERNED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF DENNIS. AS DENNIS EMERGES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...DENNIS LOOKS TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE CHURNING OVER THE WARM OCEANIC WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER IS CALLING FOR DENNIS TO BEGIN TAKING ON MORE OF A
POLEWARD CURVE SATURDAY...AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS TAKES THE TRACK INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
IF THE FORECAST HOLDS...THIS WILL BE POTENTIALLY THE 2ND MAJOR
HURRICANE TO IMPACT THE AREA IN LESS THAN A YEAR. /10
OF NOTE...IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. ERRORS FOR
TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NAUTICAL MILES ON DAY 4 AND 325
NAUTICAL MILES ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KNOTS EACH DAY.
THUS...IT IS NOT IMPORTANT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON A FIXED POINT...BUT FOR
A LARGER THREAT CONE. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO REVIEW
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
WITH EACH SHIFT
WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONCERNED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF DENNIS. AS DENNIS EMERGES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...DENNIS LOOKS TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE CHURNING OVER THE WARM OCEANIC WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER IS CALLING FOR DENNIS TO BEGIN TAKING ON MORE OF A
POLEWARD CURVE SATURDAY...AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS TAKES THE TRACK INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
IF THE FORECAST HOLDS...THIS WILL BE POTENTIALLY THE 2ND MAJOR
HURRICANE TO IMPACT THE AREA IN LESS THAN A YEAR. /10
OF NOTE...IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. ERRORS FOR
TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NAUTICAL MILES ON DAY 4 AND 325
NAUTICAL MILES ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KNOTS EACH DAY.
THUS...IT IS NOT IMPORTANT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON A FIXED POINT...BUT FOR
A LARGER THREAT CONE. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO REVIEW
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
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New Orleans -
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT HURRICANE DENNIS MAY HAVE ON THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ONCE
DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT SOMEWHERE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEST TO LOUISIANA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM TPC BRINGS THE CENTER OF DENNIS INLAND
AROUND MOBILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
INDICATE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT HURRICANE DENNIS MAY HAVE ON THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ONCE
DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT SOMEWHERE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEST TO LOUISIANA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM TPC BRINGS THE CENTER OF DENNIS INLAND
AROUND MOBILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
INDICATE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.
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Lake Charles -
ALL EYES WILL THEN TURN TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DENNIS CHURNS
IT WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF THE MEXICO. MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT OF MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND MOBILE BAY EARLY SUNDAY AND
THIS IS WHAT NHC IS GOING WITH. IF THIS IS THE CASE...WE WON'T SEE A WHOLE
LOT AROUND HERE BUT DUE TO THE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL
GO FOR CHANCE OF POPS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES.
ALL EYES WILL THEN TURN TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DENNIS CHURNS
IT WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF THE MEXICO. MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT OF MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND MOBILE BAY EARLY SUNDAY AND
THIS IS WHAT NHC IS GOING WITH. IF THIS IS THE CASE...WE WON'T SEE A WHOLE
LOT AROUND HERE BUT DUE TO THE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL
GO FOR CHANCE OF POPS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES.
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clfenwi wrote:Mobile -
WITH EACH SHIFT
WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONCERNED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF DENNIS. AS DENNIS EMERGES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...DENNIS LOOKS TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE CHURNING OVER THE WARM OCEANIC WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER IS CALLING FOR DENNIS TO BEGIN TAKING ON MORE OF A
POLEWARD CURVE SATURDAY...AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS TAKES THE TRACK INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
IF THE FORECAST HOLDS...THIS WILL BE POTENTIALLY THE 2ND MAJOR
HURRICANE TO IMPACT THE AREA IN LESS THAN A YEAR. /10
OF NOTE...IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. ERRORS FOR
TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NAUTICAL MILES ON DAY 4 AND 325
NAUTICAL MILES ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KNOTS EACH DAY.
THUS...IT IS NOT IMPORTANT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON A FIXED POINT...BUT FOR
A LARGER THREAT CONE. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO REVIEW
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
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-
Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
- Contact:
Wow the local media is really focused on Dennis and the possibilities. Constant updates are rather unusual this far out. Windy and wet weekend versus this nasty heat is ok for me..So far gusts to 33mph in this area is all that is forecasted from NWS..and only at 60% precip.. they are praying for a just a brushing..
Paul
Paul
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