The (maybe) good news with Dennis for SW FL/Keys

[ncweatherwizard]

Check out the wind fields in the 11AM Forecast from NHC.

Here are the current ones:

64 KT....... 40NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

Dennis is not that big a hurricane; the storm has near Cat. 3 winds, but hurricane force winds only extend 40nm in the strongest quadrant of the storm. (Of course, strength doesn't always dictate the span of 64kt winds, etc., etc...) TS winds are found 120nm from the center, a fairly decent distance, but on the current forecast track (we'll see just where the forecast rests sooner or later), all of the Florida peninsula would be spared the stronger portion of Dennis. Of course, a eastward deviation could put the Keys under the gun; thus the Hurricane Watch. Dennis will probably remain a tightly organized hurricane, most definitely in the Caribbean, and these wind fields will likely continue.

The 36 hr. forecasted wind fields (while over Cuba):

64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

...not much change...hope this stays at a safe distance, like a good few miles southwest of Key West.

[jujubean]

I have a question....I've noticed the movement of dennis has changed from wnw to nw this morning.....I've read some post on here saying they don't expect this nw movement to continue, if this hurricane continues nw longer than they expect it to,what effect would that have on the future track?all comments welcome, as I am an amateur at this.

[gkrangers]

Well, the further north it tracks, the more of a threat to Florida it is.

If it resumes a more wnw track, then it should still miss western Florida by a good clip.

[ncweatherwizard]

Well, the NHC track kinda of leaned toward a little more northwestward track than before. If it's just a jog northwest, then the worst would miss SW Florida. If it continued on its current track, it would probably move closer to what the models say, and stick a bit closer to Florida. So yeah, the farther north it gets before hitting Cuba, the closer to FL it gets.

[Ivanhater]

does it look like its turned back more toward to wnw in the last few frames of the visible image?

[ncweatherwizard]

does it look like its turned back more toward to wnw in the last few frames of the visible image?

I'd wait until this afternoon to make up your mind about the direction.

If it's a jog to the northwest, it may last a good part of the day; same holds true if it jogs west-northwest. Then again, it might jog back and forth between northwest and west-northwest the whole way to Cuba, which is probably the most likely scenario for whatever direction the hurricane actually ends up moving.

[Steve H.]

Its typical for Gov't reporting. at 10:15 Dennis shifted back to a WNW heading and the 11 am advisory has it as moving more NW. A day late and a $ short as usual. PS: last frame shows a start of a NW jog again. But the point is, they're lagging behind about an hour from what we can see. I thought they got sat pix sooner than the public????

[Nimbus]

The small wind fields should be good news for Jamaica.
They are on the weaker side of the storm now.

Hard to tell with the wobble what the exact track will be but there is a lot of warm water between Dennis current position and the west Cuban coastline..

Those wind fields will be expanding so the tropical storm warnings for the keys were warranted.

[Foladar]

The small wind fields should be good news for Jamaica.
They are on the weaker side of the storm now.

Hard to tell with the wobble what the exact track will be but there is a lot of warm water between Dennis current position and the west Cuban coastline..

Those wind fields will be expanding so the tropical storm warnings for the keys were warranted.

It's actually a hurricane watch for the Keys