New Euro says MObile...

mobilebay · #1 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:15 am

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5070800!!/

#2 Postby **LSU2001** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:19 am

Could you explain to a newbie/amature how you pinpoint mobile. I have zoomed, strained etc and I cannot tell if it is mobile, biloxi, gulfport, new orleans etc. I do believe it is somewhere in that area but how can you tell the city.
TIm

#3 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:21 am

Actually, if you look at the 500 mb map and assume the system is stacked (which it should be) - landfall is closer to the MS border. Still - the surge from this into Mobile Bay would be catastrophic (equal to or greater than what was expected from Ivan).

mobilebay · #4 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:22 am

Getting as close as I can. I can't tell you the Zip code though. General area only.

BamaMan · #5 Postby **BamaMan** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:22 am

This we do not need, but then again there is no good place for Dennis :eek:

jkt21787 · #6 Postby **jkt21787** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:22 am

Thanks Purdue. That's definitely close to the MS border. Mobile is in trouble if correct.

Time for some shut eye.

#7 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:23 am

Yeah. That's pretty much what the 12z run did. The Euro is bringing a harmonic convergence to the SE LA posters, S MS posters, S AL posters and NW FL posters where we could all get summa dat. I ain't gonna lie and say I don't want some effects, but I already had some this week. My beer budget is going to break me and I'll be sleep deprived

Steve

Sean in New Orleans · #8 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:23 am

The track is moving West...I'm not going to be concerned too much about this system...I've watched so many. I really need to see the system in the GOM in about 24 hours and then I will have a handle on what is occurring with this system. It seems moot, at this point, to analyze every jog...

jkt21787 · #9 Postby **jkt21787** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:25 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:The track is moving West...I'm not going to be concerned too much about this system...I've watched so many. I really need to see the system in the GOM in about 24 hours and then I will have a handle on what is occurring with this system. It seems moot, at this point, to analyze every jog...

While it may seem moot, the trends with the Globals have been quite consistent (exception CMC) with a NOLA or just east landfall to Mobile. Don't put your guard down yet; I do take by your comments though that you're not.

mobilebay · #10 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:26 am

Well the point is the models are in pretty good agreement for 72 hours. They are clustered between Pensacola, and NOLA. How much more do you want. Everyone in this area needs to get prepared NOW! The Models are not going to lock in on a 20 mile stretch of Coast 72 hours out. However, they sure have narrowed it down a lot.

rtd2 · #11 Postby **rtd2** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:34 am

mobilebay wrote:Well the point is the models are in pretty good agreement for 72 hours. They are clustered between Pensacola, and NOLA. How much more do you want. Everyone in this area needs to get prepared NOW! The Models are not going to lock in on a 20 mile stretch of Coast 72 hours out. However, they sure have narrowed it down a lot.

Good point and I've said this too the modesl are as Tight as I've seen them for 72 hrs. Also the Official L/F point has been Moblie to P'cola back and forth and thats a Small margin too!

mobilebay · #12 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:39 am

rtd2 wrote:
mobilebay wrote:Well the point is the models are in pretty good agreement for 72 hours. They are clustered between Pensacola, and NOLA. How much more do you want. Everyone in this area needs to get prepared NOW! The Models are not going to lock in on a 20 mile stretch of Coast 72 hours out. However, they sure have narrowed it down a lot.

Good point and I've said this too the modesl are as Tight as I've seen them for 72 hrs. Also the Official L/F point has been Moblie to P'cola back and forth and thats a Small margin too!

My opinion is that the NHC will move their forecast Track to the Alabama/Mississippi border at 5AM. The GFS and it's disciples are considered right outliers at this time. If they split the difference like they usually do it will be a AL/MS border forecast. JMHO

Ixolib · #13 Postby **Ixolib** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:47 am

mobilebay wrote:My opinion is that the NHC will move their forecast Track to the Alabama/Mississippi border at 5AM. The GFS and it's disciples are considered right outliers at this time. If they split the difference like they usually do it will be a AL/MS border forecast. JMHO

Hurricane Frederick - part deaux???

mobilebay · #14 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:53 am

Ixolib wrote:
mobilebay wrote:My opinion is that the NHC will move their forecast Track to the Alabama/Mississippi border at 5AM. The GFS and it's disciples are considered right outliers at this time. If they split the difference like they usually do it will be a AL/MS border forecast. JMHO

Hurricane Frederick - part deaux???

It will probably change after that again. However, I'm just forecasting what they are going to forecast. :lol:

Sean in New Orleans · #15 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:57 am

I'm prepared and to be quite honest, I've thought all along that this system would stike between Morgan City, LA & Pensacola, FL. The key to everything is patterns and the answer lies in the patterns with this type of system and it's location over the last 200 years. This makes this system fairly unique and lies alot of possibilities open.

New Euro says MObile...

New Euro says MObile...

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