Dennis Advisorys 7 AM,Cat 2 105 mph
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cycloneye
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Dennis Advisorys 7 AM,Cat 2 105 mph
Ok a new clean thread for advisorys only.Every day a new clean advisory thread will be up.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:44 am, edited 34 times in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Maybe they are holding off to include a Vortex Message in the 8AM?
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cycloneye
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loon wrote:cool, I'll ruin the fresh clean thread first =]
Whats taking so long you think? Last minute changes? We usually get it almost 30 minutes before yes?
Waiting for recon reports possibly a vortex.
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I knew it had to be Stewart when i had to keep scrolling and scrolling to be able to copy it... lol
Hurricane Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 15a
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on July 08, 2005
...Dangerous category 4 Hurricane Dennis continues to become
better organized south of central Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba for The Provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas... Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin and Guantanamo. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth and the
province of Pinar del Rio.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to
Ocean Reef and Florida Bay.
At 800am EDT...1200z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
replaced the Hurricane Warning for the Cayman Islands with a
Tropical Storm Warning for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman islands.
All warnings have been discontinued for Grand Cayman Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Florida West Coast
south of Bonita Beach...and along the Florida East Coast south of
Golden Beach. A tropical storm watch is in effect along the
Florida West Coast north of Bonita Beach to Longboat Key.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that
hurricane or tropical storm conditions...respectively...are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea...Florida...and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the eye of Hurricane Dennis was located near
latitude 20.9 north...longitude 79.5 west or about 230 miles...
370 km...southeast of Havana Cuba and about 285 miles...460 km...
south-southeast of Key West Florida.
Dennis is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph ...19 km/hr.
Dennis has made a slight wobble and has slowed down slightly during
the past 6 hours. However...a general motion to the northwest...
along with a gradual increase forward speed...is expected to resume
later today and continue during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the eye of Dennis will reach the south-central coast of Cuba
later today.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Dennis is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
before landfall in Cuba.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over Cuba...with local 15 inch amounts over the Sierra
maestra mountains of southeastern Cuba. Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
is expected over extreme southern Florida...Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...are likely in
areas of onshore winds along the southeast coast of Cuba east of
Cabo cruz. A much larger storm surge of near 20 feet is possible
along the southern coast of Cuba west of Cabo cruz. A storm surge
of 3 to 6 feet is possible in the lower Florida Keys.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...20.9 N... 79.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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I think some people may have missed this like I did because the time said PM instead of AM on the NHC site. Here it is! 
000
WTNT64 KNHC 081225
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2005
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
JUST AFTER 8 AM EDT...1200Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES...AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 136 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...INDICATING A SURFACE
WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE AND STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
AN INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED
AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT64 KNHC 081225
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2005
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
JUST AFTER 8 AM EDT...1200Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES...AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 136 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...INDICATING A SURFACE
WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE AND STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
AN INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED
AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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wx247 wrote:I think some people may have missed this like I did because the time said PM instead of AM on the NHC site. Here it is!
000
WTNT64 KNHC 081225
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2005
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
JUST AFTER 8 AM EDT...1200Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES...AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 136 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...INDICATING A SURFACE
WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE AND STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
AN INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED
AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
Garrett that was posted by me as soon it came out but I posted apart from this thread.
Look down the page.
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wx247
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OH, ok. Well now it is apart of this page. 
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150 mph!!!
Hurricane Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 16
Statement as of 15:00Z on July 08, 2005
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba for The Provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin and Guantanamo. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth and the
province of Pinar del Rio.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to
Ocean Reef and Florida Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cayman Brac and Little
Cayman Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect along the Florida West
Coast south of Bonita Beach...and along the Florida East Coast
south of Golden Beach. A tropical storm watch is in effect along
the Florida West Coast north of Bonita Beach to Longboat Key.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that
hurricane or tropical storm conditions...respectively...are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea...Florida...and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
Hurricane center located near 21.4n 79.9w at 08/1500z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 13 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 938 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt.
64 kt....... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 75ne 75se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt.......140ne 120se 75sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 150se 80sw 100nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 21.4n 79.9w at 08/1500z
at 08/1200z center was located near 20.9n 79.5w
forecast valid 09/0000z 22.7n 81.7w...inland
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...140ne 120se 75sw 100nw.
Forecast valid 09/1200z 24.5n 83.6w...over southeast Gulf of Mexico
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 120se 80sw 110nw.
Forecast valid 10/0000z 26.5n 85.0w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 130se 90sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 10/1200z 28.4n 86.2w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 130se 100sw 140nw.
Forecast valid 11/1200z 32.6n 88.3w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 50sw 140nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 12/1200z 37.0n 88.6w...dissipating inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Outlook valid 13/1200z 39.5n 84.8w...remnant low inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 21.4n 79.9w
next advisory at 08/2100z
forecaster Stewart
Hurricane Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 16
Statement as of 15:00Z on July 08, 2005
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba for The Provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin and Guantanamo. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth and the
province of Pinar del Rio.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to
Ocean Reef and Florida Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cayman Brac and Little
Cayman Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect along the Florida West
Coast south of Bonita Beach...and along the Florida East Coast
south of Golden Beach. A tropical storm watch is in effect along
the Florida West Coast north of Bonita Beach to Longboat Key.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that
hurricane or tropical storm conditions...respectively...are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea...Florida...and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
Hurricane center located near 21.4n 79.9w at 08/1500z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 13 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 938 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt.
64 kt....... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 75ne 75se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt.......140ne 120se 75sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 150se 80sw 100nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 21.4n 79.9w at 08/1500z
at 08/1200z center was located near 20.9n 79.5w
forecast valid 09/0000z 22.7n 81.7w...inland
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...140ne 120se 75sw 100nw.
Forecast valid 09/1200z 24.5n 83.6w...over southeast Gulf of Mexico
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 120se 80sw 110nw.
Forecast valid 10/0000z 26.5n 85.0w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 130se 90sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 10/1200z 28.4n 86.2w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 130se 100sw 140nw.
Forecast valid 11/1200z 32.6n 88.3w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 50sw 140nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 12/1200z 37.0n 88.6w...dissipating inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Outlook valid 13/1200z 39.5n 84.8w...remnant low inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 21.4n 79.9w
next advisory at 08/2100z
forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 16
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 08, 2005
...Dennis now a stronger category four hurricane as it nears the
south-central coast of Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba for The Provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin and Guantanamo. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth and the
province of Pinar del Rio.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to
Ocean Reef and Florida Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cayman Brac and Little
Cayman Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect along the Florida West
Coast south of Bonita Beach...and along the Florida East Coast
south of Golden Beach. A tropical storm watch is in effect along
the Florida West Coast north of Bonita Beach to Longboat Key.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that
hurricane or tropical storm conditions...respectively...are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea...Florida...and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 21.4 north... longitude 79.9 west or about 130
miles... 205 km... west of Camaguey Cuba and about 250 miles... 405
km...south-southeast of Key West Florida.
While some wobbling has occurred...as is typical of a major
Hurricane...Dennis is expected to continue moving toward the
northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr. On this track...the center should
make landfall along the south-central coast of Cuba this afternoon.
Reconnaissance aircraft data indicate maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dennis
is a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some
weakening is forecast as Dennis moves over Cuba...but is expected
to remain a major hurricane as it emerges over The Straits of
Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft was 938 mb...27.70 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over Cuba...with local 15 inch amounts over the Sierra
maestra mountains of southeastern Cuba. Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
is expected over extreme southern Florida...Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...are likely in
areas of onshore winds along the southeast coast of Cuba east of
Cabo cruz. A much larger storm surge of near 20 feet is possible
along the southern coast of Cuba west of Cabo cruz. A storm surge
of 3 to 6 feet is possible in the lower Florida Keys.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Florida Keys and the
southern Florida Peninsula into Saturday.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...21.4 N... 79.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 08, 2005
...Dennis now a stronger category four hurricane as it nears the
south-central coast of Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba for The Provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin and Guantanamo. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth and the
province of Pinar del Rio.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to
Ocean Reef and Florida Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cayman Brac and Little
Cayman Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect along the Florida West
Coast south of Bonita Beach...and along the Florida East Coast
south of Golden Beach. A tropical storm watch is in effect along
the Florida West Coast north of Bonita Beach to Longboat Key.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that
hurricane or tropical storm conditions...respectively...are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea...Florida...and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 21.4 north... longitude 79.9 west or about 130
miles... 205 km... west of Camaguey Cuba and about 250 miles... 405
km...south-southeast of Key West Florida.
While some wobbling has occurred...as is typical of a major
Hurricane...Dennis is expected to continue moving toward the
northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr. On this track...the center should
make landfall along the south-central coast of Cuba this afternoon.
Reconnaissance aircraft data indicate maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dennis
is a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some
weakening is forecast as Dennis moves over Cuba...but is expected
to remain a major hurricane as it emerges over The Straits of
Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft was 938 mb...27.70 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over Cuba...with local 15 inch amounts over the Sierra
maestra mountains of southeastern Cuba. Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
is expected over extreme southern Florida...Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...are likely in
areas of onshore winds along the southeast coast of Cuba east of
Cabo cruz. A much larger storm surge of near 20 feet is possible
along the southern coast of Cuba west of Cabo cruz. A storm surge
of 3 to 6 feet is possible in the lower Florida Keys.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Florida Keys and the
southern Florida Peninsula into Saturday.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...21.4 N... 79.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
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