12:00z Model Guidance

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:41 am

It is updated already.UKMET still is the more west of the models followed by GFDL.

#2 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:44 am

UKMET has been so consistent with this storm, that concerns me.
It's either dead on, or way off.

GFDL Over MS now, great.

Website · #3 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:46 am

Very very consistent. I think it's pretty clear now where it's going.

dwg71 · #4 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:46 am

It'll be dead wrong, it s overestimating the ridge. Outflow to the north of Dennis is looking better this morning and you can see SSE to NNW cloud flow on pennisula.

#5 Postby **Mattie** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:47 am

And the UK Met terminates the storm in Dallas. . . . we need the rain - but I don't know about this storm!!

tim_in_ga · #6 Postby **tim_in_ga** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:47 am

dwg71 wrote:It'll be dead wrong, it s overestimating the ridge. Outflow to the north of Dennis is looking better this morning and you can see SSE to NNW cloud flow on pennisula.

I'd have to agree. Latest WV loop seems to indicate the ridge getting shoved to the east.

wxwatcher91 · #7 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:48 am

ok the infrared satellite has changed views now... just a shorta benchmark in the track :wink:

wow in the infrared the eye is now showing even the white of the cloud! it is deepening a lot

it has definitely made a NNW turn and I think the models in the 12z run didnt have time to take this into account

lacyclone · #8 Postby **lacyclone** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:48 am

Just why is the UKMET so far west? The other models seem to be at a general consensus further east? Someone else on this board asked if it was down, because it has been consistently west of the others. Not just a little, but way left. Is it picking up something the others can't, or is it broke?

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:51 am

lacyclone wrote:Just why is the UKMET so far west? The other models seem to be at a general consensus further east? Someone else on this board asked if it was down, because it has been consistently west of the others. Not just a little, but way left. Is it picking up something the others can't, or is it broke?

If it's right... a lot of people are going to be thrown off guard. It's been showing roughly the exact same track for at least 2 days now.

karenfromheaven · #10 Postby **karenfromheaven** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:53 am

Our local WJHG Met said the ukmet does not take into account recon data from the storm like the US models do.

tim_in_ga · #11 Postby **tim_in_ga** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:54 am

karenfromheaven wrote:Our local WJHG Met said the ukmet does not take into account recon data from the storm like the US models do.

Yeah, I think they are on their own as far as data. All the others seems to run off the GFS data.

#12 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:13 am

i dont get it, wunderground is showing the models different

Website · #13 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:15 am

ivanhater wrote:i dont get it, wunderground is showing the models different

Old... look at the times.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

These runs are from 8am EDT today(Friday).

TS Zack · #14 Postby **TS Zack** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:31 am

Also, that is different models but they are up to date. NOGAPS has made the switch so has the GFDL.

N2Storms · #15 Postby **N2Storms** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:44 am

Our local WJHG Met said the ukmet does not take into account recon data from the storm like the US models do.

Hey Karen, fellow Panama Citian here. Are you talking about Jason Kelly on TV 7? He is very good, he is friends with Stacy Stewart at the NHC and that is where he gets a lot of his info. I put more stock in what he is saying than I do with the national outlets.

#16 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:54 am

I feel as if I am losing my mind. Everything I look at including the first post in this thread says the 6th. I KNOW today is the 8th and we have had data since the 6th? The only exception is the Model runs on Wunderground which has a few from this morning.

Is everyone so overwhelmed that updates are impossible to keep current? I'm refreshing like crazy, backing out and going back in and still the 6th. It feels like a time warp!!!! OL :eek:

Lynn

Website · #17 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:56 am

HurricaneQueen wrote:Is everyone so overwhelmed that updates are impossible to keep current? I'm refreshing like crazy, backing out and going back in and still the 6th. It feels like a time warp!!!! OL

Lynn

It says the 8th... it can look like a 6 though.

#18 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:25 am

Brent wrote:
lacyclone wrote:Just why is the UKMET so far west? The other models seem to be at a general consensus further east? Someone else on this board asked if it was down, because it has been consistently west of the others. Not just a little, but way left. Is it picking up something the others can't, or is it broke?

If it's right... a lot of people are going to be thrown off guard. It's been showing roughly the exact same track for at least 2 days now.

Southeast LA for FOUR STRIAGHT DAYS!

LilNoles2005 · #19 Postby **LilNoles2005** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:44 am

dh, I do not think that is accurate. I remember that TWO days ago, the UKMET showed landfall in Apalachee Bay on the FL panhandle.

#20 Postby **Mattie** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:46 am

It's been Louisiana all the way for the UKMET - I've been watching it like a hawk because my family is there.

12:00z Model Guidance

12:00z Model Guidance

dh..

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