discussion on expected intensity after Cuba

[wxwatcher91]

the latest vortex update showed significant weakening in the wind speed (135mph now) and a moderate pressure rise (up to 941mb)

Dennis is still a category 4 hurricane however just borderline...

I'm thinking Dennis will be a strong category 2 hurricane when he exits Cuba.

what does everyone else think?

[jkt21787]

I agree. Low cat 3 I think, but cat 2 is not out of the question with the vortex confirming rather fast weakening already.

[GulfHills]

How long will it take to go over Cuba?

[ColdWaterConch]

How long will it take to make landfall on Cuba?

[Brent]

How long will it take to go over Cuba?

Roughly 12 hours. Should be moving into the Gulf during the wee hours tomorrow.

I'm going with 110-120 mph.

[canegrl04]

Hes expected to be back over water tomorrow morning.Early

[Derek Ortt]

its likely not weakening below cat 3 and this weakening may be due to another EWRC as radar showed a concerntric eye, and not due to land

look for a rather quick wind increase after it moves back offshore in a couple of hours as it comes back in gradient balance

[LAwxrgal]

I think Dennis has reached his peak ... intensity-wise.

Still, I expect it to be a strong hurricane when it gets off of Cuba.

[jkt21787]

I think Dennis has reached his peak ... intensity-wise.

Still, I expect it to be a strong hurricane when it gets off of Cuba.

I won't rule it out but I doubt we see 150 again over the Gulf. I hope not at least.

[wxwatcher91]

oh yeah in the last discussion didnt they say an EWRC was occuring or about to occur??

In that case my forecast is this:

2pm: 145mph
5pm: 130mph
8pm: 120mph
11pm:115mph
2am: 115mph
5am: 120mph (back over water)

[wxwatcher91]

How long will it take to go over Cuba?

Roughly 12 hours. Should be moving into the Gulf during the wee hours tomorrow.

I'm going with 110-120 mph.

whoa public advisory 16a has it out over water by evening!

ok changing forecast again ... im saying 120mph

[Brent]

How long will it take to go over Cuba?

Roughly 12 hours. Should be moving into the Gulf during the wee hours tomorrow.

I'm going with 110-120 mph.

whoa public advisory 16a has it out over water by evening!

ok changing forecast again ... im saying 120mph

It sped up. If it holds, offshore by 11pm tonight.

In that case 115-125 mph.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If it sped up and maintains its speed, could it get into the gulf, moving north, before the ridge has a chance to "build back in" like everyone is saying??!! -it is currently a littl eeroded, allowing Dennis to be NW moving as it is.
-Just getting a bit ancy here in Tampa Bay area. My big issue is surge flooding at high tide, so every bit closer this could get to my beach is of great concern.

[ALhurricane]

It surely looks like it has picked up some forward speed. Therefore, it's trek over Cuba will be shorter... maybe only 3-4 hours in duration. I expect to still see a Category 3 storm once it emerges into the Gulf.

[Droop12]

Im gonna be optimistic and say a cat 2 when he emerges into the gulf. Im hoping (admittedly -removed-) that he struggles awhile coming off Cuba. So when he gets going he wont be able to intensify even more and hopefully make landfall weakening.