Steve Lyons and shift west

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Steve Lyons and shift west

#1 Postby jax » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:40 pm

on TWC, Steve Lyons just said that the cone may need to be shifted
left at the 11pm update due to the WNW movement over the last
few hours...
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#2 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:44 pm

Earlier Lyons said after talking with Dr. Forbes that the westward movement of Dennis could be because on Doppler Echo Tops have gone down from 50,000 ft to 30,000 ft, thus the storm is being steered by lower level flow
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#3 Postby Ixolib » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:45 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Earlier Lyons said after talking with Dr. Forbes that the westward movement of Dennis could be because on Doppler Echo Tops have gone down from 50,000 ft to 30,000 ft, thus the storm is being steered by lower level flow


Now THAT is interesting. What a great place to learn!!
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#4 Postby WhiteShirt » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:45 pm

would that put the upper Texas coast in the cone?
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#5 Postby reeef » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:47 pm

YES!!! BRING IT ON. :grrr:
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#6 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:48 pm

WhiteShirt wrote:would that put the upper Texas coast in the cone?


Not likely.
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#7 Postby Rainband » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:48 pm

reeef wrote:YES!!! BRING IT ON. :grrr:
:roll: are you for real??
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#8 Postby lacyclone » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:49 pm

Now that is definitely interesting. If the storm is being steered by lower level winds, what does that do to our previous thinking based on higher leverl atmos.?
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#9 Postby gboudx » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:49 pm

WhiteShirt wrote:would that put the upper Texas coast in the cone?


I doubt that far west. If you look at water vapor loops, you can see a SW->NE flow off the Texas coast.
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Re: Steve Lyons and shift west

#10 Postby rtd2 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:49 pm

jax wrote:on TWC, Steve Lyons just said that the cone may need to be shifted
left at the 11pm update due to the WNW movement over the last
few hours...


Said MANY post ago Havanah would get HIT! But if He doesnt Hurry he May not Be a Cat one By then! :D (That would Be fine!) CDO is Disruppted!...Sure is Taking the LONG way Across! :D

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml
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#11 Postby WXFIEND » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:49 pm

looking slightly worse for New Orleans?? this storm has too many jogs and wobbles :x
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#12 Postby PurdueWx80 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:49 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Earlier Lyons said after talking with Dr. Forbes that the westward movement of Dennis could be because on Doppler Echo Tops have gone down from 50,000 ft to 30,000 ft, thus the storm is being steered by lower level flow


This is SUCH a good point and I'm so glad you brought it up. The ridge is much stronger at 850 mb (for instance) than at 500 mb (relatively speaking). Will be interesting to see the NAM - it is already much stronger with the 500mb ridge over the far western Atlantic, and heights with the trough in the Northeast are higher (as in weaker) and further north than the 12z run had indicated - could be a sign...
Last edited by PurdueWx80 on Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#13 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:50 pm

reeef wrote:YES!!! BRING IT ON. :grrr:


Never been to the 1900 Storm movie at Pier 21, I'm guessing?
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#14 Postby drudd1 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:54 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Earlier Lyons said after talking with Dr. Forbes that the westward movement of Dennis could be because on Doppler Echo Tops have gone down from 50,000 ft to 30,000 ft, thus the storm is being steered by lower level flow


This is SUCH a good point and I'm so glad you brought it up. The ridge is much stronger at 850 mb (for instance) than at 500 mb (relatively speaking). Will be interesting to see the NAM - it is already much stronger with the 500mb ridge over the far western Atlantic, and heights with the trough in the Northeast are higher (as in weaker) and further north than the 12z run had indicated - could be a sign...


If this is the case, after Dennis goes back over water and begins to intensify, I would imagine the upper level flow would begin to once again assert itself in influencing the steering?
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#15 Postby Foladar » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:55 pm

reeef wrote:YES!!! BRING IT ON. :grrr:

Some people ... :roll:
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jax

#16 Postby jax » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:56 pm

drudd1 wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Earlier Lyons said after talking with Dr. Forbes that the westward movement of Dennis could be because on Doppler Echo Tops have gone down from 50,000 ft to 30,000 ft, thus the storm is being steered by lower level flow


This is SUCH a good point and I'm so glad you brought it up. The ridge is much stronger at 850 mb (for instance) than at 500 mb (relatively speaking). Will be interesting to see the NAM - it is already much stronger with the 500mb ridge over the far western Atlantic, and heights with the trough in the Northeast are higher (as in weaker) and further north than the 12z run had indicated - could be a sign...


If this is the case, after Dennis goes back over water and begins to intensify, I would imagine the upper level flow would begin to once again assert itself in influencing the steering?


and put it back on a NW - WNW course... shifting the cone over 50 to 100
miles...
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#17 Postby reeef » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:56 pm

im just kidding. galveston is basicly safe with the low we got over us.
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#18 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:57 pm

Foladar wrote:
reeef wrote:YES!!! BRING IT ON. :grrr:

Some people ... :roll:


Seriously...
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#19 Postby reeef » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:58 pm

good lord. chill out it was a joke
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#20 Postby Ixolib » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:58 pm

drudd1 wrote:If this is the case, after Dennis goes back over water and begins to intensify, I would imagine the upper level flow would begin to once again assert itself in influencing the steering?


By then, though, wouldn't the recent westward step have already taken place, thus impacting its direction contrary to previous/current forecasts?
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