Track reasoning...stronger=westward?

[PTPatrick]

Yesterday when it bombed to a 4 models trended west. This AM when it was a 1 they trended east. I seems to me that the models which dont think this is going to be a 4 dont know what going on with it. I am afraid that we will have a 4 plowing into a VERY offgaurd mississippi coast near biloxi or gulfport...which is going to be a disaster. The casinos havent even evacuated as far as I know.

[Rainband]

Stronger canes move Poleward. North

[Valkhorn]

Stronger canes move Poleward. North

Baloney.

Gilbert, Allen, Mitch, Ivan and Isabel did NOT move poleward during their stints as category 5s.

The only two category 5's that moved poleward that I can think of that moved poleward as a 5 were hurricane Dog and hurricane Camille.

I think it will make more WNW jogs now as it gets stronger and makes more of its own environment.

[Opal storm]

A more northward track will take place tonight and is already showing signs of going a little more north than west.That would make Dennis a AL/western FL panhandle event keeping MS and LA on the weak side.

By the way...what's with these jogs to the west I'm hearing about???I've been looking at it for like an hour and it's moving dead NW,no jogs to the west have occured.

[skysummit]

A more northward track will take place tonight and is already showing signs of going a little more north than west.That would make Dennis a AL/western FL panhandle event keeping MS and LA on the weak side.

By the way...what's with these jogs to the west I'm hearing about???I've been looking at it for like an hour and it's moving dead NW,no jogs to the west have occured.

It has been jogging west for the past few hours. Even the NHC has mentioned it along with local media. It is still going NW though.

[Rainband]

Stronger canes move Poleward. North

Baloney.

Gilbert, Allen, Mitch, Ivan and Isabel did NOT move poleward during their stints as category 5s.

The only two category 5's that moved poleward that I can think of that moved poleward as a 5 were hurricane Dog and hurricane Camille.

I think it will make more WNW jogs now as it gets stronger and makes more of its own environment.

sorry I read that here.

North Atlantic trade winds tend to move newly-formed hurricanes from east to west at around 15 miles per hour. "Then, almost without exception," wrote Lutgens and Tarbuck, "hurricanes move (north-) poleward and are deflected into the westerlies, which increase their forward motion up to a maximum of 100 kilometers (62 miles) per hour." They often zigzag off the coast as we make helpless guesses about where landfall may be.

I misunderstood what I read. BTW. There are people here to learn about weather. If you have a point to make thats one thing but respect is key

[jlauderdal]

Stronger canes move Poleward. North

Baloney.

Gilbert, Allen, Mitch, Ivan and Isabel did NOT move poleward during their stints as category 5s.

The only two category 5's that moved poleward that I can think of that moved poleward as a 5 were hurricane Dog and hurricane Camille.

I think it will make more WNW jogs now as it gets stronger and makes more of its own environment.

well i can find alot more evidence of 3's and 4's moving poleward than a few 5's that didn't....please.

[wx247]

Someone said it best (I can't remember who) when they stated that hurricanes move poleward unless something is blocking their way... ala a ridge.

[Javlin]

PT Harrison county is the only county that has not issued some kind of sp. statement today.They said that they where waiting till 7:00PM to make the hard decisions.While alot of people wait complacently.

[Valkhorn]

well i can find alot more evidence of 3's and 4's moving poleward than a few 5's that didn't....please.

Maybe because there are a lot more 3's and 4's than 5's?

Sure, with more hurricanes, and yes with ones that are weaker (the point was made that STRONGER hurricanes move poleward) you'll find plenty that do move northward. But, you also find plenty that move West or WNW.

But, if you look at the law of averages most stronger hurricanes actually weaken as they head northward, and only a minority intensify before they hit land.

Rainband, sorry if I sounded disrespectful, btw.

[Valkhorn]

Also, what wasn't taken into account is that most of the stronger hurricanes tend to make their own environment. Usually when storms weaken do they become more susceptable to other steering factors.

Now there are times when a storm is ventilated by its steering currents, but those are usually the exception rather than the rule.

[hurricanefloyd5]

the weather channle said the stronger dennis gets the father east it will go and just wanted to know it this crap true or is it full of bs?????????????????????

[Sanibel]

Looks to be west of track, but is still well within curving right into expected landfall...

[Rainband]

Also, what wasn't taken into account is that most of the stronger hurricanes tend to make their own environment. Usually when storms weaken do they become more susceptable to other steering factors.

Now there are times when a storm is ventilated by its steering currents, but those are usually the exception rather than the rule.

No problem Just a friendly reminder. We are all here to learn

[Brent]

the weather channle said the stronger dennis gets the father east it will go and just wanted to know it this crap true or is it full of bs?????????????????????

The Weather Channel is officially crap.

Maybe west... but not east.

It's very very very obvious it's either going on the NHC track(Pensacola) or west. God I hope it turns because it's headed right for New Orleans.

[HurryKane]

PT Harrison county is the only county that has not issued some kind of sp. statement today.They said that they where waiting till 7:00PM to make the hard decisions.While alot of people wait complacently.

They've issued a mandatory evac of Zone A and buildings that cannot withstand 80 mph winds.

[PTPatrick]

from where its at...it would have to start moving N or NNW NOW to get into destin or fort walton

[Brent]

PT Harrison county is the only county that has not issued some kind of sp. statement today.They said that they where waiting till 7:00PM to make the hard decisions.While alot of people wait complacently.

They've issued a mandatory evac of Zone A and buildings that cannot withstand 80 mph winds.

80 mph?

Might want to make that 130 mph or even greater.

[HurryKane]

PT Harrison county is the only county that has not issued some kind of sp. statement today.They said that they where waiting till 7:00PM to make the hard decisions.While alot of people wait complacently.

They've issued a mandatory evac of Zone A and buildings that cannot withstand 80 mph winds.

80 mph?

Might want to make that 130 mph or even greater.

I don't write 'em They mean buildings countywide, not just in Zone A.

http://www.co.harrison.ms.us/news.asp?newsid=39&wd=y

[ericinmia]

I don't have time to read this whole thread, but here is the answer to the first post.

Sure, stronger storms are effected more by the coriolis effect, so are storms farther north of the equator.

BUT

The main thing that will steer this storm is that ridge off to its east-northeast. Depending on the orginization of the storm and how it is comprised... it will be steered by different levels... All levels matter, but the lower leves of 200mb, 300mb, 400mb, 500mb are the most important. A general rule of thumb would be that the stronger the storm gets the lower the level it will be steered by. Cat 3 storms and up are most effected by currents in the 200-350mb range.

Hope that helps with the understanding better.
-Eric