UNOFFICIAL...more aggressive and south; Emily Forecast 4

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 4:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... emily.html

This is about the biggest shift you're going to ever see me make between two consecutive forecasts, but the forward speed is much quicker than previously thought, so the left shift is merited. The forecast brings it to 65kts in 48 hours, but there's a better chance than not that the system will reach hurricane intensity before then; I'm just unsure if the dry air will decide to jump in. At this point, it looks like the worse the dry air make do is to restrict outflow; it certainly remains complacent. Conditions in the Carib. are a little unsure for the 48 to 96 hour period, so I think the forecast is a good compromise between this, that, and the other.

Scott