12Z Global models

[clfenwi]

GFS is still smoking pot wrt Emily

"Nooo forecaster dude, there ain't going to be no storm in the Carib... chill out"

[gkrangers]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

12z UKMET

Ok, it follows the NHC track guidance for the most part. Takes it south of Hispaniola, north of Jamaica, south of Cuba towards the western tip of Cuba. The ridge builds in strong over the SE US and NE GOM. By 144 hours, Emily is in the central gulf heading towards TX/LA.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[deltadog03]

WOW...interesting...thanks

[Sanibel]

The reason the image weakens south of Cuba is because the model is running it across land all along the southern Cuban coast...

[MWatkins]

Hmmm...lets see where the models are as of now in the extended period:

The 00Z Euro said...Yucatan landfall.
The 12Z GFS = Yucatan Landfall
The 12Z NOGAPS = Yucatan (probably)
The 12Z UKMET = Yucatan Channel

Still waiting for the 12Z GFDL.

This smells like...early on...a Yucatan landfall perhaps. Any poleward movement for this to be a Gulf issue is going to need to start happening earlier vs. later in the forecast period based on the latest model guidance...and Emily looks to be south of a strong ridge.

MW

[gkrangers]

..

[WeatherEmperor]

Hmmm...lets see where the models are as of now in the extended period:

The 00Z Euro said...Yucatan landfall.
The 12Z GFS = Yucatan Landfall
The 12Z NOGAPS = Yucatan (probably)
The 12Z UKMET = Yucatan Channel

Still waiting for the 12Z GFDL.

This smells like...early on...a Yucatan landfall perhaps. Any poleward movement for this to be a Gulf issue is going to need to start happening earlier vs. later in the forecast period based on the latest model guidance...and Emily looks to be south of a strong ridge.

MW

Mike. So does that mean that the Bermuda High is once again stronger then normal? If so, does that mean that most, if not all tropical cyclones will be blocked from going north of the islands in the future and stay on a southern track into the Caribbean?

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

My first smell upon seeing this morning's satellite loop was a Yucatan low-tracker as well seeing how it is doing a classic low entry.

However, Dennis did a big pull north east of Jamaica...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hmmm...lets see where the models are as of now in the extended period:

The 00Z Euro said...Yucatan landfall.
The 12Z GFS = Yucatan Landfall
The 12Z NOGAPS = Yucatan (probably)
The 12Z UKMET = Yucatan Channel

Still waiting for the 12Z GFDL.

This smells like...early on...a Yucatan landfall perhaps. Any poleward movement for this to be a Gulf issue is going to need to start happening earlier vs. later in the forecast period based on the latest model guidance...and Emily looks to be south of a strong ridge.

MW

All this said Mike..What do you think about the prospects of the waves behind her and thier future tracks with the ridge sitting out there as strong or eve nstronger than last year?

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS kept Emily heading west longer than other models so far and brings her squarely into the Yucatan Peninsula at 144 hours.

[ALhurricane]

I just wish for once the GFS could get a clue at initialization...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000l.gif

That is completely unacceptable, but all too common.

Overall though, the global models are beginning to indicate Emily may have a tough time gaining much latitude for the next several days.

[gkrangers]

Good thing NHC doesn't follow the GFS too closely.

NOGAPS right into the Yucatan...another southern shift of the track it seems.

[clfenwi]

Canadian is right outlier... North coast of Cuba at 84 hours... Florida Keys at 96...just south of Lousisana on a WNW path at 144 hours.

[clfenwi]

Description of 12Z GFDL above is inaccurate; poster may have been looking at the 06Z run.

GFDL's 12Z track in the later term is more or less in between the tracks of the UKMET and NOGAPS.

The right outlier, far and away, is the Canadian.

[gkrangers]

GFDL plot says 1726Z...so thats the 12z, and not the 18z?

[Stratusxpeye]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_5day.html

Is this track not about 90% identical to Dennis and close to Ivans. Could there really be a direct hit to panhandle again? My god that would be crazy!!! Im not -removed- i live on the west coast and I already knows this is not a florida storm. Well most likely not anyway. Way farther west.

[clfenwi]

GFDL plot says 1726Z...so thats the 12z, and not the 18z?

I take it you are looking at

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

in that case 1726Z refers to the time it got added to the plot, not the time of the model run... comparing it to http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif ... yes, that is the 12Z.

[GalvestonDuck]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_5day.html

Is this track not about 90% identical to Dennis and close to Ivans. Could there really be a direct hit to panhandle again? My god that would be crazy!!! Im not -removed- i live on the west coast and I already knows this is not a florida storm. Well most likely not anyway. Way farther west.

Even if it did look like it was tracking towards the Panhandle, I *think* it would only be a brief track that way. If the models have a handle on the ridge, FL panhandle would be protected (from what I can tell). It would turn and head towards the W GOM. Might look like this (but certainly NOT a storm I want again!!!):



Edited to add: No, I'm not -removed-...just using that one to illustrate the turn away from FL. Sheesh!!!

[gkrangers]

GFDL plot says 1726Z...so thats the 12z, and not the 18z?

I take it you are looking at

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

in that case 1726Z refers to the time it got added to the plot, not the time of the model run... comparing it to http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif ... yes, that is the 12Z.

gotcha. same with the ukie.

[clfenwi]

European model runs it just south of Jamaica between 96 and 120 hours... its 144 hour position is still offshore, maybe a touch further south than the NOGAPS, but is hard to tell with the differences in map projection .