.LONG TERM (THU NGT-TUE)...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS QUITE TYPICAL
FOR JULY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES...
EXPECT NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS...SO
INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT THERE AND LEFT 40 PERCENT POPS OVER
INLAND COUNTIES.
LATEST NHC FORECAST BRINGS EMILY INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF
CUBA ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM MAY MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT IT IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT EFFECT...IF ANY...IT WILL
HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.
After their early morning alluding to the ridge possibly pulling a little north at the end of the forecast period, the latest discussion implies no such northward pull and seems to reinforce a building westward of the ridge. This looks like it will be a saving grace for Tampa local area anyway for at least Emily and possibly #6 if it becomes an issue too. If Emily gets into the GOM, it is looking more and more likely that she would be impacting the western GOM. -this could be a TX/LA storm this time. -if she survives. Looking less impressive this afternoon.