ULL in Central Bahamas...

[TheShrimper]

I realize viewing the latest model representation, that they are disregarding this feature. If this would continue to dig southwestward, is there any chance that this might draw Emily more poleward before the ridge starts bridgeing? The WV shows it quite clearly, but Emily being at such a low lattitude may not be influenced at all. Any thoughts on this scenario?

[deltadog03]

i don't know but, GREAT question...I would think that would push her a little north...

[gatorcane]

yes good point....another thing I was thinking is that since the strong ridge hasn't actually built in yet (it's replacing a trough right now) that maybe the models are overestimating how strong it will be?

[deltadog03]

yes good point....another thing I was thinking is that since the strong ridge hasn't actually built in yet (it's replacing a trough right now) that maybe the models are overestimating how strong it will be?

Yeah, cuz if my memory does serve me right...most models had that thing already out of there....so, once it gets a little closer to it..i think it may push her up in lat....would that have any validity??

[gatorcane]

I don't know, have you seen Emily tonight? She's really struggling poor thing. lol. Looks like she may be headed for South America

[Huckster]

I think in the short term at least, the models might be underestimating the strength of the ridge currently steering the storm. It's been moving basically due west all day and actually moved slightly south by .1 degree between the last two advisories, between 4 pm and 7 or 5 pm and 8, depending on your location. The latest advisory is still forecasting a turn toward the WNW during the next 24 hrs. We'll see. If there's no turn by this time tomorrow, I've got a feeling this thing rides all the way to central America or the Yucatan once it crosses the Islands. Actually, I've already got that feeling.

[gatorcane]

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I think in the short term at least, the models might be underestimating the strength of the ridge currently steering the storm. It's been moving basically due west all day and actually moved slightly south by .1 degree between the last two advisories, between 4 pm and 7 or 5 pm and 8, depending on your location. The latest advisory is still forecasting a turn toward the WNW during the next 24 hrs. We'll see. If there's no turn by this time tomorrow, I've got a feeling this thing rides all the way to central America or the Yucatan once it crosses the Islands. Actually, I've already got that feeling.

Yeah they are expecting the turn to start soon....but when? I think we may see another shift to the left.

[Scorpion]

Any other shift to the left means South America and the graveyard.

[deltadog03]

i posted this in another thread....i have a feeling that the center is removed from the main mass of storms...the reason being, i really looked at the ir loop and it looks like the center is poking through on the NW side of those storms....