NOGAPS...Very similar to previous runs overall... at 84 hours or so resembles prev 00Z run more than 12Z run... landfall squarely in the Yucatan at 120 h...moves into BOC ... W/WNW track at 144 h towards Mexico
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071400
GFS... back to its old self... doesn't initialize a closed isobar low...doesn't have one the whole way across the Carib...if you look at the track without regards to timing it looks similar to 12Z run, however, it is much quicker in the mid-term...inverted trough crosses Yucatan at 90-96h... then creeeeps across BOC ...and kinds of leaves it there... just off of Mexico...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
CMC...manages to not lose the low this time...comes up with a track bearing no resemblence to anything it has offered to date with Emily... SW corner of Jamaica at 60 h..moves west into the Yucatan between 84 and 90 h...
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 133_50.gif and animations on moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs
UKMET... in near-mid term resembles last night's 00Z run more than this morning's 12Z... across Jamaica 54-60 h... western tip of Cuba at 84 hours... wnw to landfall just north of Rio Grande at 144 h...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
071400Z Global model roundup
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071400Z Global model roundup
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