deltadog03 wrote:FWD has been really talking about this the past few days...and what is up with the trof forecasted to come down near us??
Inquiring minds want to know. This from N.O. AFD:
NOCTURNAL CROP OF SH/TS GETTING STARTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. 700MB TROUGH THAT HELPED TO CAUSE THE TS OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND STALL ACROSS EAST
TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE AN AREA FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE THROUGH...INITIATING COMPLEXES OF SH/TS WHICH WILL GET
PICKED UP IN THE MEAN FLOW BRINGING THEM EAST BOUND. NO CHANGE IN
THE 700 TROUGH POSITION IS ADVERTISED BY ANY MODELS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE RUN WHICH IS WHY QPF IS PAINTED OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ANOTHER STRANGE TREND IS THE AMOUNT OF EARLY TROPICAL ACTIVITY
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN COMPARED TO THE PACIFIC BASIN. NO STORMS
HAVE WENT OUT INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC EITHER THIS
YEAR. LOOKING AT HEMISPHERIC SATELLITE...IT SHOWS SOME VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE MOST
EAST PAC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEDLINGS ARE BORN. THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE LOCATED FROM SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA ENDING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF ARE MAINLY UNDER UPPER
RIDGING. SIMPLY HAVEN'T SEEN TOO MANY TROPICAL SEASONS WITH THESE
CONDITIONS OR WHERE THE ATLANTIC IS BEATING OUT THE EAST PAC.
EMILY STILL ON ITS WESTERLY COURSE AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN HAVING HER TRACK WNW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BEFORE FALLING ONTO THE YUCATAN PEN EARLY ON THE 18TH.
WILL NOT SPECULATE ON WHERE SHE WILL GO AFTERWARDS BUT WILL SIMPLY
HAVE TO SEE IF THE TEXAS TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG AS THE
GLOBAL SUITE ARE ADVERTISING.
