18:00z Model Guidance,All Mexico

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cycloneye
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18:00z Model Guidance,All Mexico

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:47 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050714 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050714 1800 050715 0600 050715 1800 050716 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 65.0W 14.0N 68.4W 15.1N 71.8W 16.3N 75.3W
BAMM 13.0N 65.0W 13.9N 69.0W 15.0N 72.9W 16.0N 76.8W
A98E 13.0N 65.0W 13.9N 68.6W 14.8N 71.9W 15.6N 75.1W
LBAR 13.0N 65.0W 14.0N 68.3W 15.3N 71.9W 16.6N 75.6W
SHIP 95KTS 103KTS 108KTS 110KTS
DSHP 95KTS 103KTS 108KTS 110KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050716 1800 050717 1800 050718 1800 050719 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 78.7W 19.9N 84.9W 22.1N 89.8W 24.1N 93.8W
BAMM 17.1N 80.7W 19.3N 87.4W 20.6N 92.6W 21.5N 96.1W
A98E 16.5N 78.2W 18.5N 84.0W 20.3N 89.1W 22.3N 93.1W
LBAR 17.8N 79.2W 19.6N 86.3W 21.1N 91.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 113KTS 112KTS 105KTS 97KTS
DSHP 113KTS 112KTS 69KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 61.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 59.0W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 971MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 90NM

Image
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#2 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:50 pm

Thanks Cyclone.

It'll be interersting to see if they are still so tightly clustered once Emily gets to about 85W.
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#3 Postby jax » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:50 pm

only the UKMET and the GFDL are 1800hrs (1730hrs)
the others are yet to be updated...

edited for spelling
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#4 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:51 pm

jax wrote:only the UKMET and the GDFL are 1800hrs (1730hrs)
the others are yet to be updated...
the UKMET and GFDL are actually the 12z model runs.
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#5 Postby jax » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:52 pm

gkrangers wrote:
jax wrote:only the UKMET and the GDFL are 1800hrs (1730hrs)
the others are yet to be updated...
the UKMET and GFDL are actually the 12z model runs.


i'm simply reading the times on the chart...
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#6 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:52 pm

Looks like it will be similar to Gilbert - "I'm not changing my path"
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#7 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:54 pm

jax wrote:
gkrangers wrote:
jax wrote:only the UKMET and the GDFL are 1800hrs (1730hrs)
the others are yet to be updated...
the UKMET and GFDL are actually the 12z model runs.


i'm simply reading the times on the chart...
Ok..but the UKMET and GFDL plots were put on the chart at 1730z..the data is from the 12z runs tho.

The hurricane model times are accurate..if its around 12z, its the 12z run. If its around 18z, its the 18z run, and so on.
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#8 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:54 pm

Brownsville is at 25.9 N 97.5 W for reference.

Tampico at 22.2 N 97.9 W
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:59 pm

They are now updated.
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#10 Postby jax » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:04 pm

NHCA983 and BAMD hint at extream south Texas...
Last edited by jax on Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby Swimdude » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:04 pm

dhweather wrote:Looks like it will be similar to Gilbert - "I'm not changing my path"


Yup; I agree. Then again, I wasn't around to track Gilbert... Or... I was... Maybe a few months old... Anyway, I do know Gilbert was a very "stick-to-it" storm in terms of path... This one could easily do the same. What happened to the talk of a turn NW or NNW after 120 HR?
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#12 Postby djtil » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:18 pm

not only is this going to end up mexico, but deep mexico. i think the gfs and nogaps are closest on this one.
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#13 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:20 pm

jschlitz wrote:Thanks Cyclone.

It'll be interersting to see if they are still so tightly clustered once Emily gets to about 85W.


I'll go a shift of 1.5 degrees N by 80W.
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#14 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:25 pm

Emily Se Espanol
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jax

#15 Postby jax » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:07 pm

notice how far north the XTRAP moved...
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#16 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:09 pm

Yeah the XTRAP model is good.

:lol:
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#17 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:12 pm

it will change.
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#18 Postby jax » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:13 pm

dwg71 wrote:Yeah the XTRAP model is good.

:lol:


it's not a model... it's a line that demostrates where the storm
would go on a strait line given it's current direction...
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#19 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:13 pm

OK, I have to say it just to make sure - y'all do know the xtrap is just the extrapolation of the storm's current path (in other words, where it would go if it continued on it's exact, current path)...

Sorry - had read these posts a couple times and wanted to make sure. I didn't know that when I first came on the boards :)
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LilNoles2005
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eh...

#20 Postby LilNoles2005 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:17 pm

jax wrote:
dwg71 wrote:Yeah the XTRAP model is good.

:lol:


it's not a model... it's a line that demostrates where the storm
would go on a strait line given it's current direction...



I'm guessing you missed dwg71's sarcasm in his post.
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