Emily forecast #5: Be wary South Texas

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE EMILY
NJN WEATHER CENTER
725 PM FRI JULY 15TH 2005

Hurricane Emily has lost some of her punch for now and is down to a strong Category 2 with winds around 105 mph. Warnings are out for both Jamaica and the Cayman Islands because Emily is expected to pass very close, if not directly over the top of both land masses.

Emily does not look as good as she did when she was a Category 4. She appears to be a tad elongated and some of her stronger thunderstorms now appear to be east of where her eye should be.

Emily is expected to regain some strength however as she continues trekking through the Caribbean.

Forecasters are warning south Texans to watch Emily very carefully. The NHC's recent tracks seem to have her trending a little more NW when she enters the BOC. Thus she may become a Texas threat instead of a double hit on Mexico.

My forecast track is even a little north of the NHC's and I will go ahead and call for a landfall in South Texas by sometime late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Here is my experimental 5 day outlook on Emily.

Tonight: Beginning to move a little more W-NW. Max Winds: 105 mph
Saturday: Passing VERY CLOSE to Jamaica and the Caymans. Max Winds: 110 mph
Sunday: Nearing Extreme Eastern Mexico. Maybe threatening Cancun Max Winds: 115 mph.
Monday:Crossing into the BOC. Max Winds: 115 mph
Tuesday: Nearing a landfall in south Texas. Max Winds: 125 mph

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Normandy]

Given the newest sat pics, ur intensity may be severely underestimate tonight.

[hicksta]

hold up... she goes over the yuc then goes NW she wouldnt hit south texas.. shed hit around matagorda correct?

[Josephine96]

My intensity may indeed be underestimated lol.. If it is.. I'll change it next forecast lol

[Portastorm]

hmm.. if models are tending to move N.. must be that ridge weakening.

The NOGAPS model, which NHC and others have indicated has performed well this year, has shifted south with its projected landfall. The 18z run of the GFS also has shifted further south. If there is a trend over the last 12-18 hrs, it is a trend for landfall further south not north.

[Swimdude]

hold up... she goes over the yuc then goes NW she wouldnt hit south texas.. shed hit around matagorda correct?

Not necessarily. Anywhere on the Texas coast, technically. Heck, I'm still thinking Mexico has a chance of a double landfall still.