Emily Forecast #6: We MAY get a Cat 5 in the Caribbean

Josephine96 · #1 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:06 am

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE EMILY
NJN WEATHER CENTER
815 AM SAT JULY 16TH 2005

Hurricane Emily's most recent ERC has been completed, and she remains a strong Cat 4. It is obvious that last night's forecasts for intensity by me were way underestimated.

Emily is continuing to throng through very favorable areas which means she may do nothing more than strengthen. She should pass hopefully just south of Jamaica today and not directly over the island.

She then is forecast to hit extreme Eastern Mexico on Monday morning or late Sunday night, then enter the BOC and perhaps hitting extreme Northern Mexico or South Texas.

All eyes in Texas need to keep a very close eye on Emily's path as well as her strength as this monster hurricane looks like she could become even stronger.

My forecast has Emily continuing to strengthen. I'll even boldly state she will reach Cat 5.. but probably not stay there very long. Hurricanes do reach Cat 5 but don't stay there very long because it's very hard for a storm to stay that strong. Due to ERC's as well as intensity fluctuations.

Here's my experimental 5 day forecast on Emily:
Today: Passing just south of Jamaica. Max Winds: 145 mph
Sunday: Passing south of the Caymans: Max Winds: 155 mph
Monday: Possibly a Cat 5 just before 1st landfall in Eastern Mexico. Max Winds: 160 mph
Tuesday: Losing a little strength before entering the BOC. Max Winds: 140 mph
Wednesday: Making 2nd landfall in either Texas or Mexico. Max Winds: 145 mph

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Swimdude · #2 Postby **Swimdude** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:49 am

I'm afraid of what will occur if this hits the Yucatan as a Cat. 5...

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:50 pm

Didn't Mitch hit almost the exact same spot when he was a 5 or was he further south..?

Galvestongirl · #4 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:51 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Didn't Mitch hit almost the exact same spot when he was a 5 or was he further south..?

I think he was a little further south, not by much though.

hicksta · #5 Postby **hicksta** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:51 pm

Mitch chilled at the bottom of the Yuc where it makes a L. He chilled there for a while. Massive flooding

Josephine96 · #6 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:52 pm

Then he was picked up like a slingshot and pulled into SW and Central Florida as a strong tropical storm.. I remember..

Normandy · #7 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:54 pm

Again your intensity is low right now...it has winds of 155 mph, not 145.

canegrl04 · #8 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:55 pm

Mitch destroyed Honduras :eek:

( or was it Nicaraugua?)

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:57 pm

Remember when I made the forecast.. I made the forecast at 715 am this morning..

I may make another 1 tonight before bedtime.. I have a feeling this is gonna be a Cat 5 when it slams into the Mexican coasts eastern side..

Normandy · #10 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:58 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Remember when I made the forecast.. I made the forecast at 715 am this morning..

I may make another 1 tonight before bedtime.. I have a feeling this is gonna be a Cat 5 when it slams into the Mexican coasts eastern side..

I see.. my bad.

Josephine96 · #11 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:59 pm

Not a prob.. all is well :wink:

Emily Forecast #6: We MAY get a Cat 5 in the Caribbean

Emily Forecast #6: We MAY get a Cat 5 in the Caribbean

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