What happens if...

[southerngale]

What happens if the ridge doesn't build as far west as the models predict? Where would Emily likely go?

I know it's supposed to and I think the models are pretty unanimous with this (not sure) but this is just a "what if?" as they're sometimes wrong. I feel pretty safe here in Southeast Texas but when I'm looking at that monster on satellite and seeing it climb more northerly every hour, it does make one ever so slightly nervous. Emily does not look friendly and I fear for anyone in her path!

[Brent]

Depending on how far east... defintely farther north. Whether that be Middle Texas or farther east is up in the air. I think the NHC is pretty close though, maybe a *tad* far south, with it coming in about 60 miles south of Brownsville. South Texas is still very much in danger though for a landfall.

[JTD]

Wow, Kelly. I didn't realize that you lived in SE Texas. I kind of envisioned you as living in the Houston/Galv area. Maybe I got you confused with OHD.

I certainly hope it doesn't come to SE TX. I guess my feeling would be that if the models this time tommorow still say Mexico, you are probably safe.

[BLHutch]

What happens if the ridge doesn't build as far west as the models predict? Where would Emily likely go?

I know it's supposed to and I think the models are pretty unanimous with this (not sure) but this is just a "what if?" as they're sometimes wrong. I feel pretty safe here in Southeast Texas but when I'm looking at that monster on satellite and seeing it climb more northerly every hour, it does make one ever so slightly nervous. Emily does not look friendly and I fear for anyone in her path!

Greetings Beaumontian! I'm a Port Arthur native myself, though I now make my home in Galveston County. I share your concerns about the storm as well. I'm still watching and waiting....as are we all.

It's always nice to run into a fellow Golden Triangle type....even if it is online. Take care.

Brady

[DPTX]

I just had to chime in here. I also grew up in P.A. I am now in Deer Park.

[BLHutch]

There are quite a few of us in the Greater Houston/Galveston area.

Maybe we should form a support group!

Brady

[Shoshana]

I don't think we'll really know more till Emily gets over the Yucatan and actually into the Gulf. I know that the Texas DPS has an evac info site at http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/hurricane.htm .

But altho you're in SE Texas, you're still north of Houston in Beaumont. So ... keep an eye on Emily. I think the people that really need to make a decision this weekend will be the people on the barrier islands south of you - people on Padre Island, Mustang Island, Port Aransas on up to Matagorda Island.

And soon after that the people inland from there.

That's assuming Emily keeps going the way she is heading. If she changes course...

[hicksta]

<--- League CIty

[Mac]

Wow, Kelly. I didn't realize that you lived in SE Texas. I kind of envisioned you as living in the Houston/Galv area. Maybe I got you confused with OHD.

I certainly hope it doesn't come to SE TX. I guess my feeling would be that if the models this time tommorow still say Mexico, you are probably safe.

<chuckles>

Beaumont is very near Houston.

[southerngale]

Jason, I'm in Beaumont...that is Southeast Texas. Beaumont is east of Houston, near the Texas/Louisiana border.


Hello fellow Golden Triangle natives...great to see you here! Btw, I saw on the news where all of Texas was put on alert and they had a statewide conference call...just to be on the safe side. Locals here said IF Emily changed course and headed this way, they would start mandatory evacuations Tuesday morning. I don't think that will be necessary, but if it is, I think that would be a little too late!


As long as the ridge stays strong and builds west as expected, no worries here but I feel for whoever gets this storm. I don't think the Yucatan will be spared, but we can hope for a Brett '99 area landfall afterwards.

[stormie_skies]

Btw, I saw on the news where all of Texas was put on alert and they had a statewide conference call...just to be on the safe side. Locals here said IF Emily changed course and headed this way, they would start mandatory evacuations Tuesday morning. I don't think that will be necessary, but if it is, I think that would be a little too late!

I think that is the most nervewracking part of all this....my impression is that we will not know how well the ridge will hold until Monday more than likely....if she does go further north (unlikely as it may be), that sure as heck doesn't give populous areas like Corpus, Galveston/Houston or Beaumont much time to get outta dodge...and if Miss Em is anywhere near this strength Im sure not sticking around...

[JTD]

Sorry all. My entire visual picture of Texas was from Houston/Galveston down to Brownsville so in my visual picture, Houston would be in Northern Texas.

I totally forgot about the entire northern half of Texas NOT on the GOM coast

[southerngale]

Sorry all. My entire visual picture of Texas was from Houston/Galveston down to Brownsville so in my visual picture, Houston would be in Northern Texas.

I totally forgot about the entire northern half of Texas NOT on the GOM coast

hehe, n/p
Yeah, Amarillo is in North Texas. Nothing north about where I live. lol
But you're definitely not the first...I've seen others call this area NE Texas. I'm as south and east as you can get in Texas = Southeast Texas.


I hear ya stormie...but I can only assume the models are right and the ridge will be strong. The NHC has confidence in this, but then I think about how they had Cindy coming to Texas 2 days before she made landfall in SE Louisiana. Was that because the ridge was weaker than expected? Just how easy is it to predict what the ridge will do anyway?

Oh, and I won't be sticking around either if she's anywhere close to her strength now. I'll leave a trail of dust behind me...

[AL Chili Pepper]

Weaker ridge = bad news for TX Gulf Coast. See mm5FSU. I know, I know, the mm5FSU is not one of the better models, but it does show the possible scenario of a weaker ridge that doesn't extend as far west.

[WhiteShirt]

Weaker ridge = bad news for TX Gulf Coast. See mm5FSU. I know, I know, the mm5FSU is not one of the better models, but it does show the possible scenario of a weaker ridge that doesn't extend as far west.

do you have a link to that model?

[gpickett00]

now all of the texans come out of the closet. its funny how whenever a hurricane threatens a region, that regions people come on storm2k

[stormie_skies]

now all of the texans come out of the closet. its funny how whenever a hurricane threatens a region, that regions people come on storm2k

Of course they do. If a hurricane is threatening your area (or even close to it), you want to keep a close eye on it, so you can prepare. I don't see anything surprising about that....

[southerngale]

now all of the texans come out of the closet. its funny how whenever a hurricane threatens a region, that regions people come on storm2k

What Texans were in the closet?

Besides, that should be a big fat DUH anyway. Of course people show up when a hurricane threatens their area. That's just common sense. Should they show up more often when it affects another area? lol

[BLHutch]

I've never been in the closet.

Wait....that didn't sound right.

Brady

[jbgreig]

Born in Beaumont, lived in League City and Clear Lake. Been back in Beaumont for the last 7 years. That's 25 of 31 years in Beaumont. Glad to see y'all!