Landfall -- Hmmm........

[dixiebreeze]

It doesn't sound like the NHC is rock solid certain Emily will make landfall on the YP, judging by this sentence in the 11 p.m. discussion:

"INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA."

[Hurricane Cheese]

There's still a chance Em' could pass through the channel, however, I think between Cancun and Cozemel is where the greatest attention needs to be paid.

[dwg71]

you can see that the channel is still (far west edge) is still in their cone, so its definately a possibility, but they are forcasting it to go over. Time will tell.

[swimaster20]

It doesn't sound like the NHC is rock solid certain Emily will make landfall on the YP, judging by this sentence in the 11 p.m. discussion:

"INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA."

I saw that, too, thought it was pretty interesting.

[T-man]

I think what they mean is, because the ewrc is taking place, the intensity of the storm may change before landfall near Cozumel/Can Cun.............

[Sanibel]

The storm has done something in the last loop. It either had a reaction to being free of Jamaica's pull, or entered the new guiding ridge above it.

It's gone slightly south of guidance and could hit further south into Yucatan if it maintains...

[jkt21787]

The storm has done something in the last loop. It either had a reaction to being free of Jamaica's pull, or entered the new guiding ridge above it.

It's gone slightly south of guidance and could hit further south into Yucatan if it maintains...

It could just be wobbling as it reorganizes during its EWRC.

[Sanibel]

Looks sustained. Possibly passing off onto new guiding ridge over Gulf?

[Swimdude]

It could just be wobbling as it reorganizes during its EWRC.

Don't even say the word. "A temporary movement in a different direction" is plenty sufficient.

[mike18xx]

There's still a chance Em' could pass through the channel....

The last hour's movement has been due west (such that the Caymans now appear off the hook as far as getting sustained hurr-force).

[hicksta]

Storms stair step

[mike18xx]

Storms stair step

Unless they're named "Allen".

[Sanibel]

More like 285*. But that's down from 295*.

[Normandy]

Not DUE west, but a leftward super-wobble....perhaps.

[hicksta]

Ahh, the wobbles.

[mike18xx]

Not DUE west, but a leftward super-wobble....perhaps.

In a different thread, I opined that I thought Emily's NW (right of previously WNW) movement this afternoon was caused by Jamaica dragging on the system, and that now the primary feeder has moved away from the island, she's retracing back to an extrapolated WNW line. So, not a wobble, but a result of land-interaction.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Storms stair step

Is that a new kind of dance?

[Stratosphere747]

Not DUE west, but a leftward super-wobble....perhaps.

In a different thread, I opined that I thought Emily's NW (right of previously WNW) movement this afternoon was caused by Jamaica dragging on the system, and that now the primary feeder has moved away from the island, she's retracing back to an extrapolated WNW line. So, not a wobble, but a result of land-interaction.

You may have a point.

Whatever the due westward movement was, it is now over and taking another NW type of movement. It all balances out.

[Sanibel]

Hiksta:

What is your opinion about the new oblong shape of the CDO in response to the new ridge it transfered to and the new west track in response?

That next step north is long overdue...

[mike18xx]

Whatever the due westward movement was, it is now over and taking another NW type of movement.

There's also a lot more happy brighter shades of white showing up at
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
now that the primary feeder isn't over Jamaica any more.