"EWRC" mythology

[Derecho]

Noticed last year this sort of became the catchphrase of the year, much overused used by people that don't understand it...and it's continuing this year.


On various boards I've seen these myths:

1) Eywall replacement means the eye reforms in a different part of the storm.

Amazingly enough there actually are people that can't seem to master the concept of concentric eyewalls; the center of the storm remains the same, but a larger new eyewall forms outside the original eyewall in a bullseye fashion, and the original eyewall dies off.

2) Eyewall replacements happen quickly

It takes a good amount of time to form the new eyewall, for the original one to die off, etc....often the better part of a day. People seem to have an idea it's a matter of a couple of hours or even less; storms don't replace eyewalls many times in a day, and not nearly as often as the enormous numbers of proclamations of "EWRCs" for storms.

3) The only way strong hurricanes weaken is through EWRCs

Every time a hurricane shows the slightest rise in pressure or lowering of winds or worsening of satellite presentation you now see a flood of people proclaming it's an EWRC and it will instantly restrengthen.

Sorry, storms weaken for a lot of reasons; shear, dry air, etc...it can happen quickly and unexpectedly; it can happen for no apparent reason as well.

You need real evidence of one; recon reporting "CO" (concentric eyewalls), or an outer wind maxima, or seeing one on one of the TRMM products or other satellites at NRL...NOT just that the storm has weakened.

4) Storms always get stronger than they were before after an EWRC

Not true; it depends on many factors; if the outside environment (shear, water heat content, humidity of air) gets poorer as the EWRC takes place the storm won't be stronger after it's completed, but weaker.

[gkrangers]

Good post.

[TSmith274]

Good post.

Sure is. I learned a thing or two.

[Pebbles]

Fantastic post!

But would like people to keep in mind that it is overused exactly cause it is misunderstood or many are in the learning process of understanding how they work. (points to her own thread she just posted) It probably will be commented on lots untill then and would like to !!!BEG!!! people to be understanding and patient with others while they do. I know it can be frustrating for some to see it brought up so much, but we are all here to learn, share idea's, and discuss different aspects of weather/tropics.

[JTD]

Fantastic post!

But would like people to keep in mind that it is overused exactly cause it is misunderstood or many are in the learning process of understanding how they work. (points to her own thread she just posted) It probably will be commented on lots untill then and would like to !!!BEG!!! people to be understanding and patient with others while they do. I know it can be frustrating for some to see it brought up so much, but we are all here to learn, share idea's, and discuss different aspects of weather/tropics.

Well said indeed.

[Thunder44]

People like to say that it's always an ERC because if it's shear, dry air, or some kind of unfavorable enviroment, the storm could weaken alot and never get back to it's strength.

[Hurricaneman]

Erc's are a part of hurricane evolution

[Fego]

What is ERC or WERC?.. if isn't the same term.. Thanks!

[Mac]

What is ERC or WERC?.. if isn't the same term.. Thanks!

ERC and EWRC mean the same thing: Eye Wall Replacement Cycle

[curtinnc]

Derecho! Thanks bud, you are right on the money... Required reading!