Emily Forecast #8: Will restrengthen but not by much

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE EMILY
NJN WEATHER CENTER
1015 PM MON JULY 18TH 2005

After whipping the living daylights out of Mexico's resort coast as a strong Cat 4.. Emily was knocked down all the way to barely a hurricane. This drop in intensity caught me off guard not thinking she'd shrink that much.

Emily did some reported heavy damage to the areas affected but conflicting reports are still arising. Despite this.. she's not done and headed for a 2nd landfall on Mexican soil, possibly as early as late tomorrow.

Emily is into the BOC now and she will try to regain some strength in the warm waters.. These waters will probably strengthen her, but since she may make landfall again in the next 24-36 hrs.. she won't really have time to bomb out.

Emily's threat to South Texas is starting to subside a little bit. It appears the NHC has their track sticking to the Central Mexican coastline. Thus keeping even rainbands far enough away from South Texas.

Our official forecast is for Emily to become a strong Cat 1 or minimal Cat 2 by 2nd landfall.

Here is my experimental 3 day forecast on Emily {Not 5 this go around because of how quick she is forecast to dissipate}

Tonight: Into the BOC. Reorganizing, Max Winds: 80 mph
Tuesday: Approaching 2nd Mexican landfall. Max Winds: 95 mph
Wednesday: Well Inland, dying off slowly. Extratropical Max Winds: 45
mph

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Swimdude]

I agree with everything except:

but since she may make landfall again in the next 24-36 hrs.. she won't really have time to bomb out.

We saw Dennis come back from category 1 status. Emily could do it too.

[mike18xx]

Given Emily's small(er than before) size at landfall, such weakening can be expected. -- She didn't have Gilbert's monstrous windfield.

[Swimdude]

Well... The 11 p.m. advisory sure did a number on this forecast huh...

[jax]

Emily was never in the BOC...

[Stratusxpeye]

I agree with everything except:

but since she may make landfall again in the next 24-36 hrs.. she won't really have time to bomb out.

We saw Dennis come back from category 1 status. Emily could do it too.

But Dennis had alot farther to regain strength and IMO much better conditions.

[Astro_man92]

Emily was never in the BOC...

ok what is a BOC

[Astro_man92]

Given Emily's small(er than before) size at landfall, such weakening can be expected. -- She didn't have Gilbert's monstrous windfield.

no kiden

[baitism]

Emily was never in the BOC...

ok what is a BOC

Bay of Campeche

[gkrangers]

Emily was never in the BOC...

ok what is a BOC

Bay of Campeche.

Its the southwest part of the Gulf of Mexico.

[drezee]

Here is my experimental 3 day forecast on Emily {Not 5 this go around because of how quick she is forecast to dissipate}

Tonight: Into the BOC. Reorganizing, Max Winds: 80 mph
Tuesday: Approaching 2nd Mexican landfall. Max Winds: 95mph
Wednesday: Well Inland, dying off slowly. Extratropical Max Winds: 45 mph

Is that a black feather I see?