My Forcast (Emily) UPDATED

[JamesFromMaine2]

12:34pm EST

Disclaimer=The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Well I am New to Hurricane tracking I have been tracking storms on and off for 5+ years now but just really started being interested in hurricanes last year and just this year started tracking them! Infact Emily is the first one I have tracked through out its life cycle! ok now with that said I will try to explain what I think is happening! However if you disagree then please say so it will be a learning experiance for me!

Ok I have been watching this closely over the past 24hours or so and during the night before the convection fired up emily had what appeared to be a eye forming and in fact it was a 60mile wide eye! however there was little if any convection around it. Then over the night the convection started fireing up and started covering the eye much like what happend with dennis after leaving cuba. and before long there was no sign of the eye but we had this massive area of convection so once again there was little if any change in wind speed and pressure. well now this morning/afternoon you have the convection and it is fully wrapped around the closed eye wall. So all night there was either a eye but little if any convection or alot of convection but no eye. not this morning or afternoon we have both.

So my forcast is that this afternoon she will go through a period of rappid deepening and possibly even countinue deepening right up until landfall. I think she will be a strong cat 3 maybe cat 4 on landfall depending on how rappidly she deepens. from what I can tell the only thing against her is TIME and as far as where she will make landfall I really don't know. I am not willing to rule out Texas however it looks unlikely however like the NHC said any move to the right puts it all that much closer to Texas and even if it doesn't make landfall in texas they can still expect to get tropical storm forced winds so either way it will be rough night in and morning in texas!


-------------------------------------UPDATE----------------------------------------

Tuesday July 19th 2005
7:37pm EST

Well over the course of the afternoon Emily has "Exploded" Currently pressure is at 949mb and Max winds have reached 125mph which makes Emily a cat 3 Hurricane. From Radar there does not appear to be any thing in the way of Emily from countinueing to deepen. I feel that Emily has a 98% chance of being a cat 3 hurricane at landfall. She has a 60% chance of a cat 4 and a <20% chance of a cat 5.
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A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[wxwatcher91]

well I think that she will reach cat 4 strength but I'm not so sure she will maintain "strengthening mode" up to landfall... as has been the case with the storms this year, they weaken a bit before landfall...

[Sanibel]

Clear sharp eye and round CDO symmetry...