Texas Roundup

[jasons2k]

Some interesting tidbits in the TX discussions today. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out if we end up with a GOM system.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TX.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
303 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

THE RIDGE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON MON AS A SHTWV TROF ARRIVES IN THE PAC NW. THIS SHTWV SEEMS TO SPLIT THE RIDGE INTO TWO PARTS AS LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD MIDWEEK. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST WITH ...SWEEPING IT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUE EVE. THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND 0Z ECMWF ARE GENERALLY SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED. THIS MEANS THAT SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PLOWING THRU THE SOUTH PLAINS TUE NITE ACCORDING TO THE GFS PROBABLY WILL BE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH PER THE ECMWF.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
320 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS MONDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURANCE. GFS DOES SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HELD OFF ON THIS RUN ON ADDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WHICH LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN SEEN LAST WEEK.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE THAT RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL APPROACH OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM.

WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE A LITTLE ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
250 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

STILL POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED TROUGH/WAVE TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AND GFS SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH THIS WAVE. AFTER THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONSIDERING WE HAVE GONE IN A WET PATTERN...WILL KEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION GOING WITH CHANCE POPS EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INFRINGE UPON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY AND PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL INDUCE SUFFICIENT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE FA BY MID WEEK. WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

[HouTXmetro]

Why is Houston NWS is the only one talking about a tropical system? I guess they are just as anxious to see a storm as I am.

[ROCK]

Howcome Houston NWS is the only one talking about a tropical system?

This is not 90L guys. This is the BLOB in the NW carib that no one is talking about. Take a look at the latest vis loop. This area is forecsted to move through the YUC and into the W/C GOM........

taken from a local MET here....

[jasons2k]

Howcome Houston NWS is the only one talking about a tropical system?

This is not 90L guys. This is the BLOB in the NW carib that no one is talking about. Take a look at the latest vis loop. This area is forecsted to move through the YUC and into the W/C GOM........

taken from a local MET here....

I think we knew that one, but muchas gracias anyway!

[WhiteShirt]

This area is forecsted to move through the YUC and into the W/C GOM

When might this happen?

[jasons2k]

Howcome Houston NWS is the only one talking about a tropical system?

This is not 90L guys. This is the BLOB in the NW carib that no one is talking about. Take a look at the latest vis loop. This area is forecsted to move through the YUC and into the W/C GOM........

taken from a local MET here....

I think we knew that one, but muchas gracias anyway!

The "90L" piece which the models are plotting may end up in the GOM after all. The piece stuck down in the Carib. may be its own animal by tomorrow. It's way too early to tell or to even call one piece of the wave a "system" until a cyclone develops. But synoptically it looks like some piece of this wave will eventually end up in the GOM, but any kind of "track" cannot be determined yet, at least until we have a cyclone to track. Whatever we're dealing with, I'm afraid we may have Groundhog Day part 3 coming up: "Will the ridge hold or buckle?". For now all we can do is W&S.

[HouTXmetro]

Most of that convection is in the Western or Southwestern Carribean.

[HouTXmetro]

Sorry for the second post, but if that area has to cross the Yucatan it's going to be very weak.