Is that a surface or upper-level spin?

[KeyLargoDave]

WHAT the heck is going on in the last few frames of the Floater two sat (convective burst over Bahamas)? There's a distinct wrap-up, but I have no idea if that is an upper-level low or something happening at the surface.

Reading the tropical discussion and checking the TPC site, I get nothing except mention of a tropical wave from Cuba to Columbia that this convection is related to.

Looks like we might have a system developing right next door, or am I paranoid? This is usually a very bad location for Florida (Labor Day and Andrew both were here as not-well-organized storms).

[dwg71]

my initial reaction is its an upper level swirl, time will tell, recon will tell.

[PurdueWx80]

Surface or near-surface cumulus suggest a low level vortex is forming as we speak - recon will easily be able to confirm (or deny) this. Either way - new convection is firing near whatever circulation is there, and this would only act to further organize the system.

[Steve]

>>my initial reaction is its an upper level swirl, time will tell, recon will tell.

It isn't upper level I'm pretty sure. The question is whether it's mid or lower levels. You can see the bands feeding inward where they're developing, so it's likely got some warm core.

Steve

[Agua]

It isn't upper level I'm pretty sure. The question is whether it's mid or lower levels. Steve

Ditto.

[Rainband]

Agreed...banding is becoming evident. This is getting really interesting.

[KeyLargoDave]

AAAAAEEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!! <runs around in circle screaming and waving hands>

We were just about to move our boats back from the hurricane hole. Maybe not.

In another post, NWS Melbourne said it might pose a threat to east-central Florida. Is the ridge not there to steer it straight west?

Thanks for any comment -- this is close, and therefore unusually dangerous IMUO (in my unexpert opinion).

[Brent]

I think if it's not a surface circulation already that it will be before today is over...

[x-y-no]

Surface or near-surface cumulus suggest a low level vortex is forming as we speak - recon will easily be able to confirm (or deny) this. Either way - new convection is firing near whatever circulation is there, and this would only act to further organize the system.

I agree. An hour ago I wasn't sure this was down to the surface, but I'm pretty sure now.

[jasons2k]

>>my initial reaction is its an upper level swirl, time will tell, recon will tell.

It isn't upper level I'm pretty sure. The question is whether it's mid or lower levels. You can see the bands feeding inward where they're developing, so it's likely got some warm core.

Steve

I will defer to a met. to please explain here how "bands feeding inward" has nothing to do with whether or not it's warm core. Thx!