NAM jumps off the Fish Scenario.........

[Dean4Storms]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1135 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

VALID JUL 22/1200 UTC THRU JUL 26/0000 UTC

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPR AIR INGEST...

NAM LOOKS REASONABLY INITIALIZED.

MODEL TRENDS...

...T.S. FRANKLIN...

NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING SYSTEM JUST N OF BAHAMAS...VS
SHEARING IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS PER THE 00Z/22 RUN.

...S/WV SWEEPING THRU NERN US DAY 1...

NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING HEIGHTS LOWER IN WAKE OF WAVE OVER
THE REGION DAY 2.

...VIGOROUS S/WV LIFTING OUT OF NRN ROCKIES EARLY DAY 1...

NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THIS IMPULSE.

...S/WV ENERGY CONVERGING ON THE PAC NW LATE DAY 2...

NAM SHOWS REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS REGIME.

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY E OF YUCATAN...

NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EWD WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND MORE
INTENSE WITH MID LEVEL VORT MAX AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG ERN COAST OF
MEXICO DAY 3.

CISCO

MODEL BIASES AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML

[Ivanhater]

fish looking less and less likely as the hours continue

[Dean4Storms]

HPC forecasts Franklin to be headed across central Florida and into eastern GOM by mid next week........


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav.html

[WeatherEmperor]

so does this mean that curving out to sea seems less likely now?

<RICKY>

[JamesFromMaine2]

I would say its not as likely to but who knows things could still change! lol I think its kind of to early to really tell!

[Eyes2theSkies]

give it another 24-36 hours then we will know

[Rainband]

HPC forecasts Franklin to be headed across central Florida and into eastern GOM by mid next week........


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav.html

that was issued yesterday??

[Ivanhater]

well looping back around was always a real possibility, the NHC even says they really dont know whether or not it will but seems like looping chances are going up as time goes along

[Steve H.]

That HPC blurb is from yesterday. I think it is still on the money though, 'cept might take longer then thought yesterday.

[clfenwi]

HPC forecasts Franklin to be headed across central Florida and into eastern GOM by mid next week........


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav.html

That graphic is in support of yesterday's forecast discussion.

This is what this morning's preliminary discussion had to say:

WITH T.S. FRANKLIN...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GREATER
CONSENSUS TOWARD A RECURVATURE SCENARIO... AWAY FROM THE SERN
CONUS. PRELIM PROGS REFLECT ESTIMATED TRACK BASED ON 0900 UTC
TPC/NHC ADVISORY. GIVEN THE AVBL GUIDANCE...00Z GFS SEEMS TO
PROVIDE AS GOOD A SOLN AS ANY WITH THE WEAKENING SYSTEM HEADING
INTO NEW ENG EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN SUPPORT
A SOLN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS WITH THE UPSTREAM SFC WAVE CROSSING
THE GRTLKS/NEW ENG DAYS 4-5 TUE-WED. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH HANDLING OF ENERGY THAT SHOULD BE
OVER NWRN CANADA BY DAY 3 MON AND PROGRESS THRU CNTRL OR SRN
CANADA THEREAFTER. THE 00Z CANADIAN SUPPORTS THE GFS...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN CORE OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD. THE 18Z DGEX
IS EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE RIDGE OVER/NEAR
GREENLAND TELECONNECTS RATHER STRONGLY TO BELOW NORMAL HGTS OVER
ERN CANADA...SO A SOLN AT LEAST HALFWAY TOWARD THE 00Z
GFS/CANADIAN SEEMS REASONABLE. THUS BLENDED THE 00Z GFS WITH THE
NCEP ENS MEAN BY DAYS 6-7 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FCST BUT WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR FRONTAL POSITIONS.

...WRN NOAM/ERN PAC...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[Swimdude]

Jeez, the models are all over the place. Two are saying fish; one is saying Flordia, and the other kind of wobbles around in the middle.

[wzrgirl1]

It is pretty crazy. I wonder why the models are having such difficulties with Franklin. Well, I still give creedence to the NHC. They have been almost dead on this season.

[jax]

It is pretty crazy. I wonder why the models are having such difficulties with Franklin. Well, I still give creedence to the NHC. They have been almost dead on this season.

it's much easier to be accurate with a storm forcast when they are
moving 20mph... when they get below 10mph... tricky... Drifting?
very difficult

[Dean4Storms]

HPC forecasts Franklin to be headed across central Florida and into eastern GOM by mid next week........


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav.html

That graphic is in support of yesterday's forecast discussion.

This is what this morning's preliminary discussion had to say:

WITH T.S. FRANKLIN...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GREATER
CONSENSUS TOWARD A RECURVATURE SCENARIO... AWAY FROM THE SERN
CONUS. PRELIM PROGS REFLECT ESTIMATED TRACK BASED ON 0900 UTC
TPC/NHC ADVISORY. GIVEN THE AVBL GUIDANCE...00Z GFS SEEMS TO
PROVIDE AS GOOD A SOLN AS ANY WITH THE WEAKENING SYSTEM HEADING
INTO NEW ENG EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN SUPPORT
A SOLN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS WITH THE UPSTREAM SFC WAVE CROSSING
THE GRTLKS/NEW ENG DAYS 4-5 TUE-WED. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH HANDLING OF ENERGY THAT SHOULD BE
OVER NWRN CANADA BY DAY 3 MON AND PROGRESS THRU CNTRL OR SRN
CANADA THEREAFTER. THE 00Z CANADIAN SUPPORTS THE GFS...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN CORE OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD. THE 18Z DGEX
IS EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE RIDGE OVER/NEAR
GREENLAND TELECONNECTS RATHER STRONGLY TO BELOW NORMAL HGTS OVER
ERN CANADA...SO A SOLN AT LEAST HALFWAY TOWARD THE 00Z
GFS/CANADIAN SEEMS REASONABLE. THUS BLENDED THE 00Z GFS WITH THE
NCEP ENS MEAN BY DAYS 6-7 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FCST BUT WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR FRONTAL POSITIONS.

...WRN NOAM/ERN PAC...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

I missed that being from yesterday, though it to be updated already, pays to look.

Still, the NAM as they indicate above has jumped back from the recurvature so all these statements contradict one another.



I blame it on the Bermuda Triangle, Franklin is getting steered by Alien Spacecraft. If you notice he even lloks like an Alien! LOL!

[Steve]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

12z UKMet a bit more ambiguous. I didn't look at the upper charts, but at the surface, it looks like Franklin gets caught, the surface high comes down and is weak (doesn't seem accurate based on WV) and then a stronger trof kicks it out near the end of the run.

Definitely a storm to watch whatever it does...

Steve

[clfenwi]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005072212

no such ambiguity in the 12Z NOGAPS run...to the open ocean...rapidly

[Air Force Met]

HPC forecasts Franklin to be headed across central Florida and into eastern GOM by mid next week........


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav.html

That was issued yesterday when the track had the system looping and oving back WSW. They follow the NHC track and then extrapolate it after the 5 day...they will most certainly change it when it is updated to fit what the NHC is saying....so it waits to be seen if the NHC changes the track. IF they do...HPC will match it.

[clfenwi]

This is what the model diagnostics discussion has to say wrt 12Z
GFS

TRENDS

TS FRANKLIN

GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A STRANGE SPLITTING OF MID AND LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY WITH SYSTEM...ALLOWING A NEWD PROGRESSION AT H8 LIKE THE
00Z/22 RUN...BUT DIVIDING THE H5 ENERGY AROUND F27 ON THE NEW RUN



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE E OF YUCATAN

GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY EWD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...
BUT LESS INTENSE AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG ERN COAST OF MEXICO DAY 3.



MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES

GFS VERY SUSPECT WITH BOTH ITS DECOUPLING OF THIS SYSTEMS MID AND
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...AS WELL AS ITS ODD DIVISION OF THE H5
ENERGY. WHAT MAKES THE DIVISION OF THE H5 VORTICITY ODD IS THAT
THE GREATER MASS OF ENERGY IS ACTUALLY LEFT BEHIND THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM...WHICH TRUCKS NEWD ON ITS MERRY WAY INTO OPEN ATL.

NAM IS CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL TPC TRACK OF SYSTEM AND IS
RECOMMENDED OVER DUBIOUS GFS.



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY E OF YUCATAN

NAM AND GFS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM QUITE COMPARABLY THRU F72. BOTH
MODELS BRING H8 VORT MAX TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE BY DAY 3...
COINCIDENTAL WITH THE TPC FORECAST POSITION AT THAT TIME..

[Air Force Met]

It is pretty crazy. I wonder why the models are having such difficulties with Franklin. Well, I still give creedence to the NHC. They have been almost dead on this season.

One reason the NHC has been so on this season is the models have done a good job. I promise you that when we see a storm that the models have a problem handling...or timing a shortwave...ridge...etc...the NHC will have problems too. They are good forecasters...but many times you read in the discussion that when they don't know what to do...the place the track down the middle of the model guidance. Think about it...in Dennis and Emily...the model guidance was pretty clustered. So...given the spread now...they are having problems...as are we all.

[WeatherEmperor]

It is pretty crazy. I wonder why the models are having such difficulties with Franklin. Well, I still give creedence to the NHC. They have been almost dead on this season.

One reason the NHC has been so on this season is the models have done a good job. I promise you that when we see a storm that the models have a problem handling...or timing a shortwave...ridge...etc...the NHC will have problems too. They are good forecasters...but many times you read in the discussion that when they don't know what to do...the place the track down the middle of the model guidance. Think about it...in Dennis and Emily...the model guidance was pretty clustered. So...given the spread now...they are having problems...as are we all.

That is what makes this so frustrating for all of us. We simply dont know whats gonna happen.

<RICKY>