Why Franklin may LOOP after all

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mike18xx

#253 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:14 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Reasoning: The axis of the ridge (anchored at its SW end near Atlanta, GA) is stretching/building NE out over the North Carolina & Virginia (and north of Franklin) in response to increased subsidence under great quantities of blow-off generated by frontal convection. Franklin, south of the ridge axis, will drift west until encountering a weakness and recurving. Given favorable anti-cyclonic conditions developing aloft, Franklin should begin strengthening.
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Sanibel
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#254 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 26, 2005 5:54 pm

He could jerk north when that new convection catches the steering currents at that level...
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#255 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 5:58 pm

AFAICT, there isn't any layer with a northward bias near Franklin right now.
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mvtrucking
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#256 Postby mvtrucking » Tue Jul 26, 2005 6:16 pm

mike18xx wrote:AFAICT, there isn't any layer with a northward bias near Franklin right now.



Mike18xx,
A bit off topic but I wanted to ask your opinion on what 92L will do and will the front make it as far south as the GOM later this week?If so, do you see any development taking place? Thanks.
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#257 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 6:22 pm

92L is junk, and the front won't make it.
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#258 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 26, 2005 6:26 pm

mike18xx wrote:92L is junk, and the front won't make it.


while were off topic, lol, what do you think the wave behind 92 will do and head?
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#259 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 6:28 pm

WNW and become a TD.
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#260 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 6:37 pm

A three-hour difference:

Image
Image
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#261 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 6:42 pm

I can't tell for certain, but I believe the LLC is moving, or has already moved, south closer to the huge blow-up in waning daylight frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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#262 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 26, 2005 6:55 pm

Dead stall.

The Gulf Stream is transporting fresh warm water under it as it sits...
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#263 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:06 pm

The Gulf Stream hugs the coast, and doesn't go under Franklin's current position. But an LLC with lights winds doesn't stir the ocean that much (the TS-force winds are away in the bands).
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#264 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:12 pm

mike18xx wrote:Reasoning: The axis of the ridge (anchored at its SW end near Atlanta, GA) is stretching/building NE out over the North Carolina & Virginia (and north of Franklin) in response to increased subsidence under great quantities of blow-off generated by frontal convection. Franklin, south of the ridge axis, will drift west until encountering a weakness and recurving. Given favorable anti-cyclonic conditions developing aloft, Franklin should begin strengthening.
Go here: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
...and set quality to high and zoom-factor to LOW, select 30-frame animation, then click Cape Hatteras.

No way in Spotted Heck is Franklin moving NE anytime soon.
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#265 Postby DAVE440 » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:04 pm

Nice blow up of convection! Could just be the infra red but looks like a slight S or SE movement. Probably stationary in reality tho.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

THE THING JUST WON'T GIVE UP!!! :eek:
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#266 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:07 pm

Franklin has not been around very lone. He is childs play when it comes to how long his kind can last. Kyle lasted 3 weeks. Ivan Over 70 Advisories,Lisa 50+,Jeanne 50+. In alot more where that came from. Kyle had over 9- Adivsories writen on him.

So Franklin would have to be around another week or two. Before he even touches the surface. Tonight he doe's look good. In I expect him to regain some of what he losted over the next 24 hours.
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#267 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:11 pm

If the track I posted on the previous page materializes, Franklin could even achieve hurricane status.

The convection this evening is even managing to carve out a small anti-cyclone aloft.
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#268 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:56 pm

The flow to the north is now visibly east to west.


Franklin stationary...
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#269 Postby mike18xx » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:00 pm

All they really know is that it was stationary up until Tuesday afternoon; since then, the LLC has been obscured.
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Hard Headed Frank

#271 Postby drdoom » Tue Jul 26, 2005 9:48 pm

Just like my little brother Franklin. He seems disappointed that a storm finally named after him didn't get cat 5 and hit central florida. He was slammed hard by charley last year, tree through his roof and all and loves hurricanes. I'm 50 50 now after not having power in August for a week. Cold showers, no gas, eating out, too hot to sleep. Charley came so close to me it made my ears hurt. They are exciting events. Just hope for the best. :grrr:
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#272 Postby Sanibel » Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:17 am

He could jerk north when that new convection catches the steering currents at that level...




Poleward right on cue...
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