SAL Will Be the Story for This Season

[gatorcane]

SAL is very strong this year....doesn't matter about all the other factors that indicate an above average season...it's dominating the entire Atlantic for the forseeable future....we may have to wait until late Aug. or Septemeber until things pick up.

[Andrew92]

SAL is very strong this year....doesn't matter about all the other factors that indicate an above average season...it's dominating the entire Atlantic for the forseeable future....we may have to wait until late Aug. or Septemeber until things pick up.

Care to back that up meteorologically? Your answer can't be just because it's around now if you want it to be acceptable to me.

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

It's almost August and there is absolutely nothing in the Atlantic basin because the waves are being plagued by the SAL....and it's not going anywhere anytime soon...BUT I think late Aug. and September will be more active as it historically is...the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season is Sept 15th...

[Huckster]

Well, given that we've already had seven named storms, it won't take much more activity spread out over the rest of the season to end up above normal at the end, which I fully expect. The activity normally doesn't see a big jump until we start to get into August anyway, and in the last few years, we've seen really active periods all the way till the end of the season. I think this year will be no different in that regard; things have calmed down somewhat now, but given the exceptionally warm water, I don't see the SAL winning everytime. Even if conditions don't ever become overly favorable for development when these waves are near the Cape Verde Islands and southwest of there, in one sense, that could make things worse for the Caribbean and US, since the waves will end up much farther west, giving them a better shot at making it closer to land than if they'd have developed farther out, and one mediocre storm making landfall is worse than fifteen strong ones that go out to sea.

[fci]

SAL is very strong this year....doesn't matter about all the other factors that indicate an above average season...it's dominating the entire Atlantic for the forseeable future....we may have to wait until late Aug. or Septemeber until things pick up.

Care to back that up meteorologically? Your answer can't be just because it's around now if you want it to be acceptable to me.

-Andrew92

This may be the lull we have been looing for since July had been so insane.
I just think that Mother Nature has a way of evening things out and the SAL may be the mechanism to slow down the onslaught we WERE having.

IMO, Chris does not need meteorological justification.
It's his opinion!

And no I do not have any meteorological justification either!
Just my gut feeling...

[tallywx]

The SAL was of tremendous strength at the very start of the hurricane season. Then look what happened...most active start on record. The SAL can be a fleeting thing that goes poof in no time.

[Stormcenter]

SAL is very strong this year....doesn't matter about all the other factors that indicate an above average season...it's dominating the entire Atlantic for the forseeable future....we may have to wait until late Aug. or Septemeber until things pick up.

I've heard no one at the NHC mention SAL as a current inhibiting factor. It's almost like some of us are looking an excuse or reason for lack currently named systems. Hey folks you can't have one everyday.

[gatorcane]

fci thanks for the backup...I don't have any it's just an opinon...if the pattern continued based on July we we would run out of names...and so this is a way of evening things out...I think late August and Sept will be very active....just wait.

[Andrew92]

OK, Chris and FCI, I'm sorry if my post was somewhat offensive. I didn't intend it that way at all. Everyone has their own opinion, and it's good to have a debate like this...without debate, what would the point of discussion be like this? While I still think he should have said it was in his opinion (which you just did too Chris), I still shouldn't have over-reacted the way I did.

However, in my opinion, SAL isn't going to last forever. Derek quoted earlier in another thread (or two) that we are currently just in a negative MJO....therefore, conditions will be unfavorable for a while. However, I would expect conditions to become more favorable for develop sooner than late August.

And yes I agree we are in that lull we've been begging for, including me. Hopefully it last as long as Chris is saying....but I fear it might end sooner that he thinks.

My advice for now would be to relax and take a breath for a while, because I don't think this lull will last.

-Andrew92

[Steve]

No way it's "The" story of the season. IMHO it's a sidebar at best when they update the history books. The story will be all the landfalls, the number of storms in July, new records, etc. etc. etc.

Steve

[EDR1222]

It has had an effect the last week or so. But I don't think it can stop some of the larger waves from developing.

With regards to 92L early on, the SAL was a contributor to its lack of development, but the reason it hasn't developed further IMO the past couple days is because of persistent wind shear from the upper level low to the north of the system. And it still may be able to do something when it gets away from the influence of the ULL. Remember, it is not uncommon to see windshear in that area this time of year.

The SAL will come and go, but I think that the larger tropical waves that will soon start to come off the coast of Africa as we head into August and September will develop regardless of the SAL as all the other conditions become more favorable. JMO.

[ericinmia]

To back up Andrew92....

SAL is not a great inhibetor right now... 40+ knot shear is!

Here is the SAL...
REMEMBER, NOT ALL RED IS SAL... DRY AIR IS ALSO RED!


Here is the shear...

[mobilebay]

Dr Grey said in his June Forecast that the Warm SST's will trump any other inhibiting factor this year. I tend to believe Dr. Grey, he has certainly been correct so far. There seems to be a growing number of people that would love for this season to be a dudd. It is not going to happen, this will end up as one of the most active seasons ever.

[gatorcane]

SAL still going and strong....surpressing anything in the Atlantic right now

[wxwatcher91]

[Derek Ortt]

the NHC typially does not mention SAL, even though it is an accepted scientific parameter than inhibits development. Why... I am not sure.

However, 2003 was just as quiet as it is now and we still ended up with 16. We likely wont go through the Alphabet, nor will we likely have any more cat 4 landfalls. That doesn't mean that the 2's and 3's aren't bad

[HURRICANELONNY]

There are so many factors that that inhibit or escalate the tropics. Sal is one. Shear,SST's, QBO,MJO etc.... I think Boca is saying Sal for sake of argument with nothing to back it up from previous years. But that's good. Maybe he as well as I can learn. SAL is normal in July. For what reason I don't know I just heard it was and remember it from past years. Especially, Boca, active years. I guess the upper winds are coming from the east out in Africa then from the west in less active years. Actually were finally back to a more normal July then what we had. And we broke all kinds of July records. So, if the rest of the year ends up to be normal and the Sal was a factor then I guess you'll be right. But if I was a betting man. I sure wouldn't put more then a dollar down.

[vacanechaser]

Part of the reason that the Atlantic is quiet is due to several typhoons developing. That energy is not making across the planet amd into the Atlantic due to the development in the western Pacific. Not to say that is the only cause of it. I have seen the SAL look just this bad before and in a few days, we have a developing tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. Late August, your fooling yourself... I think you were the same one that said Florida was out of the woods this year boca_chris.. Not to mention you down played the season getting started early.. Well, so much for that with 7 on the boards already... Give a week or so, and the lid will come off just like last season.


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[x-y-no]

This season is a dud!

[vacanechaser]

This season is a dud!

Maybe your right... Maybe we have seen all the storms we are going to have this season...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team