Since no one else has made mention of it, I'd like to try my hand at posting here and bring everyone's attention onto the tropical wave developing in the central Atlantic. It has decent convection, it's in a low slot, and if it comes into the Caribbean as a low rider, it has an open door into the Florida Straits/ GOM. It would need to enter into the Caribbean in the low slot though. If this system tracks toward the northern islands, it's fish.
Looking at the latest model projections, it has a good chance of coming in low. This system looks so good right now, it's surprising no one has mentioned it. it is down by 10N and 35 W and heading due west at a good 20+ mph. Looks good to its west. This one might have potential.
Tropical Wave Central Atlantic.
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elysium
The wave east of the ITCZ convection is interesting because the UKMET model has been depiciting it from the beginning. I had been looking at stuff pertaining to this wave earlier this afternoon before the TD formation hubub began.
TWD write-up:
UKMET's forecast is a bit odd, however, given the westward movement:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/31.html
though the overall movement to the northwest is consistent with its earlier forecasts.
GFS is selling a more westerly track:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/22.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/98.html
Things may get interesting with this once it gets past 40° West.
The question, of course, is if and how the Saharan dust affects it.
ITCZ write-up
TWD write-up:
FAR E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE. A NEW
OUTFLOW OF SAHARAN DUST IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
26W-29W.
UKMET's forecast is a bit odd, however, given the westward movement:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/31.html
though the overall movement to the northwest is consistent with its earlier forecasts.
GFS is selling a more westerly track:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/22.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/98.html
Things may get interesting with this once it gets past 40° West.
The question, of course, is if and how the Saharan dust affects it.
ITCZ write-up
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 8N40W 8N50W 10N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION DUE TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 15W-20W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 7N-10N BETWEEN 29W-35W...AND FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 35W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 52W-56W.
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