does anyone have any idea...................................

[weatherwindow]

if and when the "sandstom" will end? per sat imagery and the TWD, yet another intrusion of the SAL has shut down the eastern atlantic yet again. just a few questions for the board....first, can we expect it to cease and desist and, if so, by what atmospheric mechanism. second, are there examples of this phenomena persisting thru the heart of the CV season. obviosly, if it continues for the next five to six weeks the eastern end of the MDA will be sterilized. not that it would be a death knell for the rest of the season, but the focus would definitely shift toward the islands and, in tern, toward the low latitude trans- caribbean tracks...a similar absence of CV systems was observed in 1933 and that season certainly overcame any developmental obstacles ..................thanks, rich

[weatherwindow]

bump

[Frank2]

Hopefully someone else will post more expert analysis, but, if it continues to produce large quantities of dust, it's very possible that this element could help to reduce the number of systems that develop - it has certainly helped to dissipate or weaken the last 7 or 8 waves to exit the African coast.

I'm beginning to think that this season might be a lesson to many - just because the previous season, or the first half of a season, are active, does not mean that the remainder of the season will be so - I only have to think of the 1985 and 1986 seasons to know what happened there. The 1985 season was active and ran very late, and the start of the 1986 season just as busy, but, the second half of the '86 season was almost absent of any named systems.

I'm not saying that this will happen here (no one here knows), but, it'll be interesting to see how long this lull in activity lingers - truly, if we don't count a weak Franklin or Gert, there really hasn't been anything significant since Emily (7/10-7/21).

In my heart I do not believe that we'll see a repeat of the 2004 landfalls - as many know, while lightning does strike the same place twice, it's very unlikely to happen. It seems that young meteorologists often make the mistake of thinking that just because it rained all day today, there has to be a high probability of rain tomorrow - I've seen this mistake made many times, only to have an amended forecast issued after it's found that the following day, thought to produce a similar result because of similar atmospheric conditions, proves not to follow a similar outcome, much to the embarrassment of forecasters.

Frank

[Sanibel]

As some of us were discussing in May, the high SST's are conducive to more storms, however, under the correct circumstances they could possibly cause enhancement of storm inhibiting factors like the SAL for instance. It is possible the high SST's increase the dry Saharan easterlies.

In May the SST regime did not extend as far north into the Atlantic as in 2004. 2005 had more of an abrupt cut-off. This cool/inhibited area is where Franklin fizzled. In 2004 Alex set a record strength in the northern SST regime.


Apparently they are saying the SST's are hot enough that big peak season rollers are on the horizon. Actually a lull or break in early August is more normal than not.

[wxwatcher91]

actually Franklin wasnt the weak. He came within 4mph of becoming a hurricane and so did Arlene and Cindy. so actually the only "weak" tropical systems we have had were Bret and Gert and every season has those weaker ones. (read the discussion taking place in the TD 8 advisory thread)

It does appear that the dry MJO is leaving and the wet MJO is entering the Atlantic once again. we will likely see much increased activity even by the end of this week. already we are seeing the affects as TD 8 has just formed. as for the SAL I think this last batch will likely dissapate before even reaching 50W and I think that that batch will be the last of them until the dry MJO returns. like Frank said I hope someone will post more expert analysis because I'm no expert and basically I'm taking what a lot of the mets here have discussed...

[Frank2]

Yes, this season does have some very different qualities than last year, which was totally absent of any tropical systems (even a depression) until the beginning of August.

Though not a popular theory, I sometimes fear that last year's assualt put too much worldy pressure on forecasters, and found that some were over-forecasting this year's totals, fearing another season with multiple landfalling hurricanes, though it is true that the total of named systems so far is above normal.

We should also remember that meteorologists only started to become the center of media attention during the 1980's - prior to live remote interviews, forecasters usually were only heard during radio interviews and filmed documentaries. Over the past 20 years (it seemed to begin during the 1980's - my days in the business), more and more meteorologists were found in the hot seat of live interviews, and sometimes are probably forced in some sense to say what some want to hear.

While that's not to say that meteorologists are lying there way through a forecast, but, if 5 or 10 local, network, or cable celebrity meteorologists are stating a weather event to happen a certain way, it will put a certain amount of unnecessary pressure on others to state the outcome in a similar way - the unfortunate result of a "breaking news" media mindset.

Frank

[weatherwindow]

as frank and sanibel have mentioned, the input of our esteemed pros would certainly be appreciated. my questions remain..............rich

[weatherwindow]

all comments will be appreciated!!!!!!!

[Frank2]

Just to let you know that the SAL usually ends when the easterly trade winds begin to break down in early October, or when the westerlies begin to move south of 30N, so, dust outbreaks are usually a normal part of hurricane season - they keep things from getting out of hand!

Several years ago someone in the field of atmospheric science had stated that with the increase in the size of the Sarah, dust outbreaks would increase, so, it's hard to say if this will slow the formation of tropical systems - the Earth is way too complex to know for sure.

Frank

[vbhoutex]

Just to let you know that the SAL usually ends when the easterly trade winds begin to break down in early October, or when the westerlies begin to move south of 30N, so, dust outbreaks are usually a normal part of hurricane season - they keep things from getting out of hand!

Several years ago someone in the field of atmospheric science had stated that with the increase in the size of the Sarah, dust outbreaks would increase, so, it's hard to say if this will slow the formation of tropical systems - the Earth is way too complex to know for sure.

Frank

Well, we can almost say for certain that this year it hasn't slowed anything!!! In fact, I'm sure there are some out there that might try to tie the supposed increased SAL to the increased TC's we are seeing this year. They probably will start with something about "the particulate saturation in the atmosphere is leading to ......"

[Frank2]

Perhaps, since aerosols are what form rain droplets. On the other hand, dust in large quantities is know to supress the formation of convective clouds.

Frank