11:30 AM TWO has wave in atlantic

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:16 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#2 Postby **EDR1222** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:21 am

Here we go again! Derek Ortt posted in another thread that the SAL is starting to lift northward. Will be interesting to see how this one developes.

BensonTCwatcher · #3 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:24 am

Cycloneye, perhaps you should make this the offical thread since even waves get 50-100 posts :lol:

Not sure what the criteria is for offical threads though?

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:27 am

Looks really good now. :darrow:

SAL imagery

Scorpion · #5 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:36 am

This really needs an invest. I think 95L but 5 PM.

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:36 am

WOW... looks REALLY good. Irene, Irene, we see you. :eek:

Any ideas on whether it will keep going west???

MortisFL · #7 Postby **MortisFL** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:42 am

GFS keeps it generally WNW around 20N 50W in 144 hrs.

Tropicswatcher · #8 Postby **Tropicswatcher** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:42 am

I would say Harvey needs to move away faster so that the ridge can build in quick enough for this baby to continue westward.

#9 Postby **EDR1222** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:45 am

Yes, looks better than it did earlier on Satellite. Probably the further west it can go, the better chance it has due to the dry air to the north of it.

JTD · #10 Postby **JTD** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:55 am

Brent wrote:WOW... looks REALLY good. Irene, Irene, we see you.

Any ideas on whether it will keep going west???

Models said poleward last night but GFS seems to be WNW today.

But anyway....

*throws out the models*

#11 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 10:55 am

The activity just wont stop. Now Im really curious as to what numbers Dr.Gray will have since we already know what NOAA has to say.

<RICKY>

jrod · #12 Postby **jrod** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:12 am

I really hope the GFS is right on this one for once. So far 8 named storms and no significant waves here in Florida. If the GFS holds true we will finally get a nice ESE ground swell out of it.

Scorpion · #13 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:14 am

GFS has a right bias usually.

jrod · #14 Postby **jrod** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:23 am

Scorpion wrote:GFS has a right bias usually.

Well that is certainly not good for the islands. The GFS looks like it makes this one a fish, but a little shift to the left for that track and they are in trouble.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?area=gfs_troplant

Tropicswatcher · #15 Postby **Tropicswatcher** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:29 am

jrod wrote:
Scorpion wrote:GFS has a right bias usually.

Well that is certainly not good for the islands. The GFS looks like it makes this one a fish, but a little shift to the left for that track and they are in trouble.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?area=gfs_troplant

If we look at that model run we need more than 600 mile shift to the left for this system to affect the islands.

#16 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:33 am

Its only one run. Lets wait for several more and more runs before anything can be said and done.

<RICKY>

DESTRUCTION5 · #17 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:34 am

Tropicswatcher wrote:
jrod wrote:
Scorpion wrote:GFS has a right bias usually.

Well that is certainly not good for the islands. The GFS looks like it makes this one a fish, but a little shift to the left for that track and they are in trouble.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?area=gfs_troplant

If we look at that model run we need more than 600 mile shift to left for this system to affect the islands.

ive see GFS(good for Sh1t) 3000 Moes off in the 7 day...

BensonTCwatcher · #18 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:40 am

A fish? This system could do just about anything where it is now. It has all the earmarks of a CV storm in the making that could end up in the carribean or up the east coast WAYYYY too early to look at track yet. The persistent intensity and pattern concerns me. I am hoping for a fish but this one has my attention at this point...being an east coaster.

...sung to the tune of "Come on Ilene" by Dexy's Midnight Runner's

Come on Irene ...Oh I swear it's Irene...at this moment...it could do aaaaanythingggg :lol:

jrod · #19 Postby **jrod** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:50 am

Im just saying one model is suggesting a fish.

Of course it is way to early to all, I mean the thing isnt even a depression yet.

MortisFL · #20 Postby **MortisFL** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 11:51 am

BensonTCwatcher wrote:A fish? This system could do just about anything where it is now. It has all the earmarks of a CV storm in the making that could end up in the carribean or up the east coast WAYYYY too early to look at track yet. The persistent intensity and pattern concerns me. I am hoping for a fish but this one has my attention at this point...being and east coaster.

...sung to the tune of "Come on Ilene" by Dexy's Midnight Runner's

Come on Irene ...Oh I swear it's Irene...at this moment...it could do aaaaanythingggg

True, depending on the strength of Harvey eroding the ridge.

12z GFS long-term also develops another system that goes in the Caribbean.

11:30 AM TWO has wave in atlantic

11:30 AM TWO has wave in atlantic

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