Jason's Tropical Outlook - Updated 11:00 AM CDT

[jasons2k]

I've been emailing some friends and family tropical updates for quite awhile, so today I thought I would post it here for any comments.

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8/7/05 11:00 AM CDT

I have all but given up on the northern GOM. The mid-level circulation is now onshore and even if someting is left behind I am not forecasting any development until I see it.

I am not sold that Irene will curve out as quickly as current forecast.

8/6/05 11:30AM CDT UPDATED (Edited for grammar)

Very brief update today due to family in-town to visit.

Still watching low south off AL coast. This is not a classical development setup; this has primarily been a mid-upper level feature but it appears as though it is trying to develop tropical characteristics with banding features over the GOM. However, this system has very little room to work with and likely will run out of room to develop assuming it continues eastward. Note the change in movement: It appears the surface circ. that was moving SW last night has been grabbed by the upper feature, which was moving ESE out of MS, and the system is now continuing on this general path in the northern GOM.

If the trough split can leave a piece behind, that will need to be monitored if it decides to hang around the open waters.

As far as the other systems out there, nothing to add to current NHC thinking.

8/5/05 5:30CDT
Visible satellite images indicate a small but well-defined circulation has developed near Mobile, AL. This feature is currently tracking to the SW. This feature has little convection and a significant amount of shear, especially on the north side towards MS.

This feature is expected to emerge over the warm waters of the GOM tonight and move into a more favorable environment for development. Shear will decrease over the system, and the very warm waters of the GOM may provide an opportunity for this system to transition into a warm-core tropical cyclone.

Should this system materialize in this fashion, it has the potential to develop very quickly, particularly if it can maintain a steady movement away from the coast.

A weakness in the ridge is projected to remain over the NW GOM and TX.

I would encourage anyone interested in this scenario to consult the NHC report on Hurricane Alicia and the surprise TX storm of '43.

Note that it is very early for this system and we have seen circulations come and go in this region for the last 7 days, but any potential system in this region needs to be watched carefully, especially considering the available energy the GOM has built in the past 2 weeks.

8/5/2005 AM
Well the once very healthy-looking TD9 was expected to become Irene but it's not looking good today. There is a layer of arid air in the Atlantic, called the SAL which is sucking the life from TD9 at present. In addition, there are a number of factors which could affect the path of TD9, including how quickly Harvey moves out, any weakness that may be leftover from Harvey and how quickly it can rebuild. The computer models have had a very hard time with TD9, and some even showing the system dissipating. At this point in time, it is simply too early in the storm's life cycle to predict its intensity and path with any reasonable amount of certainty. We'll have to see what happens, but I would monitor this system.

There is another strong wave coming off of Africa, it will prob. be labeled 96Invest later today. Early indications are that it may track a little further south than TD9. Interestingly, the demise of TD9 may create a more favorable environment for this system to develop by dispersing the SAL.

Any waves forming in the ITCZ for the foreseeable future will need to be watched closely as high pressure to the north should steer any development on a W or WNW path.

The GOM is full of moisture and convection has been on the increase for the last few days. A trough split in the NW gulf will leave a feature behind but for now no development is expected.

[x-y-no]

There is another strong wave coming off of Africa, it will prob. be labeled 96Invest later today. Early indications are that it may track a little further south than TD9. Interestingly, the demise of TD9 may create a more favorable environment for this system to develop by dispersing the SAL.

This is a point I've been menaing to make for a while but keep forgetting to. You can get situations with a sacrificial leading system being killed by SAL, but leaving enough moisture behind to protect a follow-on system.

Jan

[dhweather]

I thought 92L would be the sacrifical lamb for 93L, but that didn't work out.

I still agree with the concept though. This dry air is really putting the
clamps on the tropics.

[jasons2k]

DH I agree and I think it's been more so than most of us expected.

[caplan1]

Good job jschlitz!!! You should think about putting these out daily.

[jasons2k]

Thanks caplan for the feedback! I send these to my "circle of trust" hehe. so I might just start posting them here and emailing them the link.

[jasons2k]

Bumped for update, comments welcome.

[jasons2k]

Bumped for update, comments welcome.